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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E Graphics
2013-08-31 17:07:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 31 Aug 2013 14:55:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 31 Aug 2013 15:03:44 GMT
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2013-08-31 16:54:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 311454 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT WAS AMBIGUOUS ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THE CYCLONE. FORTUNATELY...A 0938Z NOAA-19 AMSU AND A 1217Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASSES WERE HELPFUL IN MORE ACCURATELY LOCATING ITS CENTER. THESE INDICATE A MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM OF 325/6... PRIMARILY DUE TO STEERING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. AS THE CYCLONE WINDS DOWN IN ABOUT TWO TO THREE DAYS...IT WILL SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT MORE WESTWARD INITIAL POSITION AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TAFB...SAB...AND ADT SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT SINCE THE 1200Z ESTIMATES AND THE SYSTEM COULD BE REACHING TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY SHORTLY. HOWEVER...INTENSIFICATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE QUITE SHORT-LIVED...AS COOLER SSTS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE LIE ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE SYSTEM STARTING IN ABOUT A DAY AND A HALF. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN NOT BRINGING THE CYCLONE HIGHER THAN A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. THE INTENSITY PREDICTION MIRRORS THIS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS...WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 19.1N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 19.8N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 20.6N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 21.5N 117.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 21.9N 117.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 22.0N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2013-08-31 16:53:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 31 2013 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 311453 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 1500 UTC SAT AUG 31 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 6 8 15 25 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 34 33 34 39 46 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 64 59 55 42 28 NA NA HURRICANE X 2 4 3 2 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 2 4 3 2 NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 35KT 35KT 30KT 25KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Summary for Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E (EP1/EP112013)
2013-08-31 16:53:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 31 the center of ELEVEN-E was located near 19.1, -116.5 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E Public Advisory Number 3
2013-08-31 16:53:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 311453 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013 ...DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 116.5W ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.5 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE SYSTEM COULD REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...LITTLE ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AND WEAKENING COULD BEGIN LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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