je.st
news
Tag: depression
Tropical Depression FOUR Graphics
2013-07-24 11:07:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 24 Jul 2013 08:42:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 24 Jul 2013 09:03:50 GMT
Tags: graphics
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression FOUR Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-07-24 10:41:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 240841 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 500 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2013 GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM HAD A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 30 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS NOW BEING CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WESTWARD OR WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST THE CYCLONE MOVES WESTWARD. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A FASTER FORWARD MOTION THAN MOST OF THE OTHER TRACK MODELS. AS A RESULT...THE NHC FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THESE TYPICALLY RELIABLE MODELS AND SHOWS A FASTER WESTWARD MOTION THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN THE TRACK FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A LITTLE DRIER ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC WHICH COULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 13.9N 28.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 14.6N 30.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 15.5N 34.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 16.2N 37.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 16.8N 41.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 18.2N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 19.3N 56.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 20.0N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Summary for Tropical Depression FOUR (AT4/AL042013)
2013-07-24 10:41:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 the center of FOUR was located near 13.9, -28.1 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression FOUR Public Advisory Number 1
2013-07-24 10:41:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2013 000 WTNT34 KNHC 240841 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 500 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2013 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 28.1W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.1 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Tropical Depression FOUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2013-07-24 10:41:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 24 2013 000 FONT14 KNHC 240841 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 0900 UTC WED JUL 24 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 3 5 8 9 9 12 TROP DEPRESSION 31 20 22 25 25 26 28 TROPICAL STORM 67 72 66 59 58 57 53 HURRICANE 1 5 6 9 9 8 7 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 5 5 8 8 7 6 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 1 1 1 HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 40KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Sites : [1618] [1619] [1620] [1621] [1622] [1623] [1624] [1625] [1626] [1627] [1628] [1629] [1630] [1631] [1632] [1633] [1634] [1635] [1636] [1637] next »