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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-06-18 10:59:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 180859 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Over the past 12 h convection has blossomed and has become better organized over the broad low we have been monitoring a couple hundred miles to the south of Acapulco, Mexico. Overnight scatterometer-derived winds indicated that the system has acquired a closed circulation with max winds in the northeast quadrant of 30 kt. The most recent 06z Dvorak satellite estimates were T1.5/25 kt from TAFB and T2.0/30 kt from SAB. Since that time, deep cold convection has continued to increase near the estimated center with improved banding both the north and southwest quadrants. Due to this continued improvement in satellite imagery, this system is being upgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression this advisory. Environmental conditions appear to be favorable for additional intensification over the next 24-36 h as the storm reaches the Mexican coastline with high mid-level relative humidity, only light to moderate vertical wind shear, and very warm sea-surface temperatures between 29 to 30 C. Thus the latest NHC forecast indicates at least steady intensification, and TD4-E could become a strong tropical storm as it approaches the Mexican coastline. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA) guidance. The estimated current motion of this depression is at 285/7 kt. Currently the system is being steered by a narrow mid-level ridge north of Mexico. However, this ridge is forecast to weaken and allow the storm to gain latitude over the next 24-36 h. The latest NHC forecast takes the depression to the coast of Mexico by late Saturday. This forecast is in fairly good agreement with the latest guidance and lies closest to the most recent ECMWF run, though spread remains between models that keep the system just off the Mexican coast like the UKMET versus the HWRF and GFS models which take the storm further east and inland over Mexico sooner. Given this track forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for the coast of Mexico from Cabo Corrientes southward to Lazaro Cardenas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 14.4N 101.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 14.8N 102.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 15.7N 103.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 17.5N 104.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 20.1N 105.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 20/1800Z 23.1N 105.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 21/0600Z 25.4N 106.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Blake
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Summary for Tropical Depression Four-E (EP4/EP042021)
2021-06-18 10:59:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE MEXICAN COAST... As of 4:00 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 the center of Four-E was located near 14.4, -101.6 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Four-E Public Advisory Number 1
2021-06-18 10:59:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 180859 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE MEXICAN COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 101.6W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch from Cabo Corrientes southward to Lazaro Cardenas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... *Cabo Corrientes to Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 101.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this forward motion is expected to continue with a turn to the northwest and north-northwest over the next 24 h. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast over the next 36 h and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Saturday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Four-E will produce heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days, with rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches expected with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. SURF: Swells generated by the depression will affect portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Blake
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Tropical Depression Four-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-06-18 10:59:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 180859 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 0900 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 18(29) X(29) X(29) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) X(19) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 12(18) X(18) X(18) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 9(29) X(29) X(29) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 105W 34 X 10(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 30(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) L CARDENAS 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 100W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-06-18 10:58:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 180858 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 0900 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CABO CORRIENTES SOUTHWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... *CABO CORRIENTES TO LAZARO CARDENAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 101.6W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 101.6W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 101.3W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.8N 102.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.7N 103.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.5N 104.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.1N 105.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 23.1N 105.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 25.4N 106.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 101.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BLAKE
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