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Tropical Depression Carlos Graphics
2021-06-16 10:36:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Jun 2021 08:36:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Jun 2021 08:36:27 GMT
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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-06-16 10:35:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 160835 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 1100 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021 Carlos has maintained a small area of deep convection to the south and northeast of the well-defined low-level center of circulation. However, the convection has decreased in coverage and has become more linear over the past 3 h. Despite the ragged convective appearance in infrared satellite imagery, ASCAT-A/-B passes at 0438Z and 0554Z, respectively, indicated that the small cyclone was still producing winds of 28-29 kt in the northwestern quadrant. Therefore, the intensity is being kept at 30 kt for this advisory. Carlos is moving a little south of due west or 260/06 kt. As per the previous forecast discussion, a gradual westward turn is expected to occur later today, followed by a westward to west-northwestward motion thereafter as the cyclone weakens and becomes more vertically shallow, being steered more by the long-fetch easterly trade wind flow. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track and lies near a blend of the TVCE and NOAA-HCCA consensus track models. The only positive factor that Carlos has going for it is the warm water beneath the cyclone where sea-surface temperatures (SST) are 27.5 deg C. Surrounding the small cyclone, however, is a very dry and cool airmass, with stable stratocumulus clouds now wrapping into the system, while deep-layer vertical wind shear of more than 20 kt has been increasing from the west. Although SSTs are expected to be warm enough to sustain a tropical cyclone for the next few days, the unfavorable combination of strong shear and a drier airmass is expected to cause Carlos to weaken and degenerate into a remnant low by late today, if not sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 9.2N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 9.2N 135.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 9.2N 137.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/1800Z 9.4N 138.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0600Z 9.6N 139.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1800Z 9.8N 141.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Carlos Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2021-06-16 10:32:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 16 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 160832 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 0900 UTC WED JUN 16 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 140W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression Carlos (EP3/EP032021)
2021-06-16 10:32:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOS BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 11:00 PM HST Tue Jun 15 the center of Carlos was located near 9.2, -135.0 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Carlos Public Advisory Number 15
2021-06-16 10:32:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 160831 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Carlos Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 1100 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021 ...CARLOS BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.2N 135.0W ABOUT 1910 MI...3075 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlos was located near latitude 9.2 North, longitude 135.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Carlos is expected to degenerate into a remnant low later today and dissipate in a few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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