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Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Advisory Number 26
2020-11-07 03:52:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 070252 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST AND FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND... BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CAYMAN ISLANDS * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA Y MAYABEQUE...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. * JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BONITA BEACH * LAKE OKEECHOBEE * FLORIDA KEYS * FLORIDA BAY * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND... BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS CONTINUE TO ISSUE WARNINGS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THOSE COUNTRIES...AND INTERESTS IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEPRESSION. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 85.2W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 85.2W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 85.8W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.0N 83.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.3N 81.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.9N 79.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...160NE 90SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.0N 79.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.0N 81.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.2N 82.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 26.0N 84.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 27.0N 84.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 85.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-07 00:49:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISORGANIZED ETA MOVING NORTHEASTWARD... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... As of 6:00 PM CST Fri Nov 6 the center of Eta was located near 17.7, -85.8 with movement NE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eta Graphics
2020-11-07 00:49:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Nov 2020 23:49:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Nov 2020 21:24:43 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eta Public Advisory Number 25A
2020-11-07 00:49:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 600 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 062349 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 25A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 600 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 ...DISORGANIZED ETA MOVING NORTHEASTWARD... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 85.8W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM E OF BELIZE CITY ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cayman Islands * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa y Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings for heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the depression. Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida should monitor the progress of this system as Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be required for some of these areas tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 85.8 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected through early Sunday. A turn toward the north and northwest are expected late Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight, approach the Cayman Islands Saturday, be near central Cuba Saturday night and Sunday, and approach the Florida Keys or south Florida late Sunday. Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again tonight, with further strengthening likely through early Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Wednesday morning: Portions of Central America: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua. Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm), isolated maximum totals of 25 inches (650 mm). The Bahamas and Southern Florida, including the Keys: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The threat of life-threatening flooding will continue across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Flash flooding and urban flooding is also possible for Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Bahamas and Southern Florida. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands Saturday afternoon and evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba Saturday night and Sunday, and they are possible in the watch area in Cuba Saturday night and Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and the southern coast of Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Eta Graphics
2020-11-06 22:01:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Nov 2020 21:01:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Nov 2020 21:01:06 GMT
Tags: graphics
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