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Tropical Depression Eta Graphics
2020-11-07 03:54:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Nov 2020 02:54:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Nov 2020 02:54:50 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Discussion Number 26
2020-11-07 03:53:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 070253 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 900 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft that flew a tail-Doppler radar mission earlier this evening reported that Eta's circulation remained elongated, and that there had not been any significant increase in winds since this afternoon. There has been some increase in deep convection near and to the east of the estimated center, but there has been little overall change in organization. Therefore, the initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. Eta is expected to strengthen over the next 24 to 48 hours while it moves over warm waters and within an area of strong upper-level divergence to the southeast of a mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. Eta's structure is likely to take on characteristics of a subtropical cyclone as it merges with the cutoff low late Sunday and Monday. As this occurs, Eta's wind field is expected to increase in size. By 72 hours and beyond, dry air entrainment is likely to cause some weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to the previous one. Eta is moving toward northeastward at a faster forward speed of around 10 kt. An additional increase in forward speed should occur overnight as Eta moves northeastward around the southeastern portion of a developing mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. This feature should continue to steer Eta northeastward during the next 24 hours, but after that time the trough is forecast to cut-off, with Eta turning northward, and then northwestward around and into the mid- to upper-level closed low. The merged system is likely to move northwestward or northward later in the period. The latest runs of the dynamical models have trended toward a more northward track on Sunday and Monday with some of them showing a track near or over the southern portion of the Florida peninsula in 48 to 60 hours. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly northward during that time and lies between the TVCA multi-model consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus aid. Since Eta's wind field is forecast to expand when it moves north of Cuba, tropical-storm-force winds are expected to cover a large area to the north and northeast of the center regardless of the exact track of the center. The new forecast track requires a Tropical Storm Watch for the northwestern Bahamas, the southern Florida peninsula, and the Florida Keys. Additional watches for the Florida peninsula may be required overnight or on Saturday morning. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall is diminishing across portions of Central America, although the threat of life-threatening flooding may continue, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Heavy rainfall from Eta will move into the Cayman islands and portions of Cuba, resulting in significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Bahamas and Southern Florida. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected this weekend in portions of the Cayman Islands and Cuba, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. There is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and flash and urban flooding due to heavy rainfall in portions of southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and portions of the Bahamas this weekend and early next week. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of these areas and additional watches may be required overnight or on Saturday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 18.0N 85.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 19.0N 83.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 20.3N 81.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 21.9N 79.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/0000Z 24.0N 79.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 09/1200Z 25.0N 81.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 25.2N 82.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 26.0N 84.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 27.0N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2020-11-07 03:53:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 070253 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) 2(16) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) 2(16) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 2(20) 1(21) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 19(30) 2(32) 1(33) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 24(41) 2(43) 1(44) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 24(32) 1(33) 1(34) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 24(35) 1(36) 1(37) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 21(43) 4(47) 1(48) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) X(18) 1(19) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 21(34) 5(39) 2(41) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) 2(14) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 32(38) 4(42) 2(44) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 2(23) 2(25) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 5(30) 3(33) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 4(18) 5(23) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 5(16) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 7(18) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 9(22) 1(23) X(23) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 6(23) X(23) X(23) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 8(15) 4(19) 2(21) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 26(26) 8(34) 1(35) X(35) 1(36) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 13(13) 3(16) 1(17) 1(18) X(18) GRAND CAYMAN 34 2 54(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-07 03:52:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS, SOUTHERN FLORIDA, AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... As of 9:00 PM CST Fri Nov 6 the center of Eta was located near 18.0, -85.2 with movement NE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eta Public Advisory Number 26
2020-11-07 03:52:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 070252 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 900 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 ...ETA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS, SOUTHERN FLORIDA, AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 85.2W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coast of South Florida from Jupiter Inlet southward on the east coast and from Bonita Beach southward on the west coast, including Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef southward to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay. The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cayman Islands * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa y Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth. * Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach * Lake Okeechobee * Florida Keys * Florida Bay * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings for heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the depression. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm Watches could be required for some of these areas on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 85.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected through early Sunday. A turn toward the north and northwest are expected Sunday afternoon. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight, approach the Cayman Islands Saturday, be near central Cuba Saturday night and Sunday, and approach the Florida Keys or south Florida late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again overnight, with further strengthening likely through Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Wednesday morning: Portions of Central America: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua. Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm), isolated maximum totals of 25 inches (650 mm). The Bahamas and Southern Florida, including the Keys: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The threat of life-threatening flooding will continue across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Bahamas, and southern Florida. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Marco Island, FL to North Miami Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...2-3 ft Florida Keys...2-3 ft North Miami Beach, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands Saturday afternoon and evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba Saturday night and Sunday, and they are possible in the watch area in Cuba Saturday night and Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the northwestern Bahamas, south Florida, and the Florida Keys within the watch area beginning Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the southern coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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