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Summary for Tropical Depression Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-06 12:40:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA STILL CAUSING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... ...CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD OFF OF THE COAST OF BELIZE... As of 6:00 AM CST Fri Nov 6 the center of Eta was located near 17.5, -87.3 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eta Graphics
2020-11-06 09:38:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Nov 2020 08:38:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Nov 2020 08:38:21 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Discussion Number 23
2020-11-06 09:36:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 060836 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 300 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 Although satellite images and surface observations suggest that the circulation of Eta is elongated, deep convection has been increasing near and over the center during the past several hours. Unfortunately, the ASCAT scatterometer missed the region where Eta is located, so there has not been much additional data to analyze the structure and intensity of the cyclone. The initial wind speed is held at 30 kt based on a 2.0/30 kt Dvorak classification from TAFB. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Eta later today, and that data will be helpful in analyzing the cyclone. The depression is moving northward at 7 kt. Eta is forecast to turn northeastward later today, and accelerate slightly in that direction through Saturday in response to a mid- to upper-level trough that is expected to slide southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico. This motion should take Eta to the west of the Cayman Islands on Saturday and then across Cuba Saturday night or Sunday. Around the time Eta is forecast to be near Cuba, the models show the storm slowing down and turning northwestward or westward as the trough cuts off, and Eta pivots around the north side of that cut off low. This change in the storm motion should bring Eta near or over the Florida Keys and south Florida late in the weekend and early next week. The details in the location and timing of where Eta and the mid- to upper-level low interact will be very important to the exact track of Eta for south Florida and the Florida Keys. The new track forecast is a touch to the north of the previous one when Eta is expected to be near Florida, to be in better agreement with the latest consensus aids. The cyclone is currently over warm water, in a moist environment, and will be moving into a region of upper-level diffluence as it tracks across the northwestern Caribbean Sea. These conditions should allow for thunderstorms to organize near the center and for the cyclone to gradually intensify during the next couple of days. However, rapid intensification seems unlikely given the broad structure of Eta. The models show an increase in shear and some dry air entraining into the circulation around the time it nears Cuba this weekend, which in combination with land interaction could limit additional strengthening by then. The intensity forecast for the 72-120 hour period is more complicated as it will depend on the trough interaction mentioned above. Most of the intensity models show Eta holding steady in strength after its passage over Cuba, and the NHC forecast does the same. The wind field of Eta is expected to increase in size during the next few days, and the cyclone will likely produce a large area of tropical-storm-force winds on its north side when it is near Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida. Key Messages: 1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. 2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the northwestern Caribbean Sea later today. Although the details of the future track and intensity of Eta are still uncertain, there is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys and the northwestern Bahamas this weekend and early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 17.3N 87.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 18.0N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 19.1N 84.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 20.2N 82.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 21.8N 80.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 23.5N 79.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 24.6N 80.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 25.1N 83.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 25.9N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2020-11-06 09:36:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 060836 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 1(15) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 1(15) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 7(19) 2(21) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 9(27) 2(29) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 11(35) 2(37) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 8(24) 2(26) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 8(25) 2(27) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 11(37) 3(40) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) 2(15) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 13(33) 4(37) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 15(32) 4(36) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) 3(21) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) 6(30) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 5(21) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GUANAJA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 5(23) 1(24) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 3(24) 1(25) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 3(28) 1(29) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 7(19) 4(23) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) 2(17) 2(19) 2(21) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 11(28) 1(29) X(29) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) 1(14) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 25(26) 8(34) 1(35) X(35) 1(36) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-06 09:36:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA STILL CAUSING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... ...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM CST Fri Nov 6 the center of Eta was located near 17.3, -87.4 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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