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Tropical Depression Eta Graphics
2020-11-06 18:54:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Nov 2020 17:54:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Nov 2020 15:24:43 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-06 18:52:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT APPROACHING ETA... ...ETA STILL CAUSING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 12:00 PM CST Fri Nov 6 the center of Eta was located near 17.9, -86.9 with movement NNE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eta Public Advisory Number 24A
2020-11-06 18:52:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 061752 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 24A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1200 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT APPROACHING ETA... ...ETA STILL CAUSING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 86.9W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF BELIZE CITY ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings for heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the depression. Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida Keys and southern Florida should monitor the progress of this system as Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be required for some of these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 86.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (10 km/h). A turn toward the northeast and a faster forward speed are expected this afternoon, with this motion continuing through early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea today, approach the Cayman Islands Saturday, and be near central or western Cuba Saturday night and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again this afternoon or tonight, with further strengthening likely through early Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Wednesday morning: Portions of Central America: An additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua. Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm). The Bahamas and Southern Florida, including the Keys: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380 mm). This rainfall will continue catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica and southeast Mexico. Flash and urban flooding is possible across the Bahamas and Southern Florida. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba Saturday night and Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and the southern coast of Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Eta Graphics
2020-11-06 16:03:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Nov 2020 15:03:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Nov 2020 15:03:24 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Discussion Number 24
2020-11-06 16:00:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 417 WTNT44 KNHC 061500 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 900 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that Eta is producing organized convection in a large band over its northern and eastern quadrants, with the center located just off the coast of Belize near the western end of the band. These data, along with surface observations, also show that the circulation is elongated. The initial intensity remains 30 kt in agreement with a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Eta this afternoon, and a NOAA flight is scheduled for this evening. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 025/6 kt. A developing mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to steer Eta northeastward for the next 48 h or so with an increase in forward speed. Between 48-72 h, the trough is forecast to become a closed low near south Florida and western Cuba, with Eta expected to turn northwestward around and into the low. After 72 h, the merged system is likely to move slowly west-northwestward. While the guidance is in good agreement on the synoptic evolution, there are a lot of differences in the track forecast details in terms of both the heading and the forward speed, with the GFS-based guidance tending to be to the east and north of the UKMET/ECMWF/Canadian. Overall, the consensus models have shifted a little to the east and north since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is also nudged in those directions. Eta will move over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean during the next 48 h or so, and the upper-level divergence is forecast to be quite strong. This should allow some strengthening, although this is likely to be slowed by 20-30 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear. The intensity forecast for this part of the cyclone's life is similar to the previous forecast and lies a bit below the bulk of the intensity guidance. Between 48-72 h , Eta may take on at least some subtropical cyclone characteristics as it merges with the mid- to upper-level low. During this process, some of the guidance suggests the possibility that a tight inner wind core may develop. There is a chance that during this time that Eta could regain hurricane strength, although this would be an intensity above the current guidance. After 72 h, dry air entrainment is expected to cause the cyclone to weaken. The wind field of Eta is expected to increase in size during the next few days, and the cyclone will likely produce a large area of tropical-storm-force winds on its north side when it is near Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida. The new forecast track requires a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cayman Islands at this time, and a Tropical Storm Watch for portions of Cuba. Watches may be required for portions of south Florida and the Florida Keys later today or tonight. Key Messages: 1. Rainfall associated with Eta will continue to result in catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Flash flooding and urban flooding is also possible for Jamaica and southeast Mexico. 2. This weekend Eta is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Cayman Islands, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions possible in portions of western and central Cuba, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 3. There is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and flash and urban flooding due to heavy rainfall in portions of southern Florida, the Florida Keys and portions of the Bahamas this weekend and early next week. Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will likely be issued later today or tonight for a portion of this area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 17.8N 87.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 18.6N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 19.7N 83.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 21.0N 81.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 22.7N 79.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/0000Z 24.1N 80.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 09/1200Z 25.0N 81.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 25.5N 84.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 26.5N 85.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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