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Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Advisory Number 23
2020-11-06 09:36:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 060836 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CAYMAN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS CONTINUE TO ISSUE WARNINGS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THOSE COUNTRIES...AND INTERESTS IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEPRESSION. INTERESTS IN CUBA...THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 87.4W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 87.4W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 87.6W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.0N 86.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.1N 84.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.2N 82.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.8N 80.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.5N 79.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.6N 80.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 25.1N 83.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 25.9N 85.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 87.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 06/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Eta Public Advisory Number 23
2020-11-06 09:36:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 060836 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 300 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 ...ETA STILL CAUSING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... ...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 87.4W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NNW OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings for heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the depression. Interests in Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, Florida Keys and southern Florida should monitor the progress of this system as Tropical Storm Watches could be required for some of these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 87.4 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected later today, with this motion continuing through early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea today, approach the Cayman Islands Saturday, and be near Cuba Saturday night and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again later today, with further strengthening likely through early Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Wednesday morning: Portions of Central America: An additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua. Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm). The Bahamas and Southern Florida, including the Keys: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380 mm). This rainfall will continue catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica and southeast Mexico. Flash flooding is possible across the Bahamas and Southern Florida. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands Saturday or Saturday night. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and the southern coast of Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Eta Graphics
2020-11-06 06:32:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Nov 2020 05:32:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Nov 2020 03:24:42 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-06 06:32:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA STILL CAUSING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... ...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY... As of 12:00 AM CST Fri Nov 6 the center of Eta was located near 17.0, -87.6 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eta Public Advisory Number 22A
2020-11-06 06:32:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 060532 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1200 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 ...ETA STILL CAUSING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... ...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 87.6W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NNW OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings for heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the depression. Interests in Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, Florida Keys and southern Florida should monitor the progress of this system as Tropical Storm Watches could be required for some of these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 87.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected later today, with this motion continuing through early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea today, approach the Cayman Islands Saturday, and be near Cuba Saturday night and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again later today, with further strengthening likely through early Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Tuesday morning: Portions of Central America: An additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua. Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm). This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica and southeast Mexico. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands Saturday or Saturday night. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and the southern coast of Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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