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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-10-08 16:43:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 081443 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 AM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 Intermittent bursts of deep convection are maintaining the circulation of Norbert. First-light visible satellite imagery shows the latest burst over the northeastern potion of the cyclone with a partially exposed low-level center. The initial intensity is being held at 25 kt, and is supported by the latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, as well as data from an earlier ASCAT overpass. The environment surrounding Norbert is not forecast to change much over the next few days, with perhaps some slight increase in the atmospheric moisture in about 24 h. Therefore, only minor fluctuations in intensity are expected to occur during that time. By 72 h, model guidance is indicating that the cyclone should encounter a more stable atmosphere, which should limit convection and cause Norbert to weaken. The cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low devoid of deep convection by day 4, but it is possible that the deep convection could dissipate long enough for Norbert to be declared a remnant low before that time. Norbert has been nearly stationary since the previous advisory, and very little motion is expected today due to a lack of steering currents. A mid-level ridge is forecast to slowly build to the northeast of the cyclone Friday through the weekend, which should cause Norbert to eventually move west-northwest to northwest. By late in the forecast period, the forecast track becomes quite uncertain, as there are now indications that whatever is left of Norbert may interact with a disturbance to its west. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one through 72 h, but is left of that track beyond 72 h due to a shift in the consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 13.2N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 13.0N 106.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 13.0N 106.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 13.4N 107.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 14.1N 107.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 14.9N 108.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 15.5N 108.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 15.8N 109.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z 15.9N 110.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2020-10-08 16:42:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 081442 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 1500 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 1(12) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Summary for Tropical Depression Norbert (EP4/EP192020)
2020-10-08 16:42:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT REMAINS STATIONARY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Oct 8 the center of Norbert was located near 13.2, -106.2 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Norbert Public Advisory Number 12
2020-10-08 16:42:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 081442 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 AM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT REMAINS STATIONARY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 106.2W ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 106.2 West. The depression is nearly stationary, and little movement is expected today. A slow west-southwestward to westward motion should begin tonight into Friday. A slightly faster west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected by this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-10-08 16:41:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 081441 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 1500 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.2W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.2W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.2W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 13.0N 106.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 13.0N 106.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 13.4N 107.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.1N 107.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.9N 108.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.5N 108.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 15.8N 109.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 15.9N 110.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 106.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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