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Summary for Tropical Depression Norbert (EP4/EP192020)
2020-10-09 04:39:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DISORGANIZED NORBERT REMAINS A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 9:00 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 the center of Norbert was located near 13.0, -106.0 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Norbert Public Advisory Number 14
2020-10-09 04:39:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 090239 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 PM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 ...DISORGANIZED NORBERT REMAINS A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 106.0W ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 106.0 West. The depression is currently stationary. A slow west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected to begin on Friday and continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-10-09 04:38:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 090238 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0300 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 106.0W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 106.0W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 106.0W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 13.1N 106.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 13.5N 106.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.2N 107.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.6N 107.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 14.8N 107.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.0N 107.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 15.0N 108.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 15.0N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 106.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BERG
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Tropical Depression Norbert Graphics
2020-10-08 22:34:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Oct 2020 20:34:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Oct 2020 20:34:03 GMT
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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-10-08 22:33:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 082033 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 PM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 Norbert has a ragged and disorganized appearance, with asymmetrical convection bursting intermittently around the center. Satellite imagery suggests that the system is now experiencing some southeasterly shear. A recent ASCAT overpass sampled peak winds of 24 kt, so the advisory intensity will remain 25 kt. The current environment surrounding Norbert is not forecast to change much over the next few days. Therefore, only minor fluctuations in intensity are expected to occur during that time. By 72 h, model guidance is indicating that the cyclone should encounter a more stable atmosphere, which would limit convection and cause Norbert to weaken. The cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low devoid of deep convection by day 4, but it is possible that the deep convection could dissipate long enough for Norbert to be declared a remnant low before that time. Another plausible scenario is that Norbert's low level circulation dissipates and opens up into a surface trough later in the forecast period. The only change to the latest NHC forecast is that no further strengthening is indicated, which is agreement with every available intensity model except the SHIPS guidance. Norbert has barely budged since early this morning due to a lack of steering currents. A weak mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the northeast of the cyclone Friday through Saturday, which should cause Norbert to eventually move west-northwest to northwest. By Sunday, however, a mid-upper level low digging across northern Mexico should weaken the ridge, and the model guidance has trended toward Norbert once again meandering for a couple of days. By day 5, low-level ridging building to the northwest of Norbert should cause the shallow system to begin a westward motion. Due to the lack of run-to-run model consistency in the 3-5 day period, that portion of the track forecast is of low confidence. The NHC forecast track was changed little through 48 h, then is slower at 60-96 h to reflect the second collapse of the steering currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 13.1N 106.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 13.0N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 13.3N 106.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 13.9N 107.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 14.5N 107.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 14.8N 107.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 14.9N 107.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 15.0N 107.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1800Z 15.1N 109.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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