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Tropical Depression Omar Public Advisory Number 15
2020-09-04 10:35:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 040834 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Omar Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 AM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 ...OMAR SOON TO BE A REMNANT LOW... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.3N 58.5W ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM ENE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Omar was located near latitude 35.3 North, longitude 58.5 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h) and a turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Omar is likely to degenerate into a remnant low later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Omar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2020-09-04 10:35:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 04 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 040834 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 0900 UTC FRI SEP 04 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-09-04 10:34:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 04 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 040834 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 0900 UTC FRI SEP 04 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 58.5W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 58.5W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 58.8W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 35.6N 57.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 36.5N 57.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 38.1N 56.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 40.5N 54.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.3N 58.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Omar Graphics
2020-09-04 04:33:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2020 02:33:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2020 02:33:47 GMT
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-09-04 04:32:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 040232 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 The larger mass of deep convection from earlier today that was south of the exposed low-level center of Omar has since dissipated. The only convection that remains is a few small patches in the eastern semicircle. The initial intensity is being lowered to 25 kt, and is based off a recent ASCAT overpass showing peak 26 kt wind vectors. If the current state of the tropical depression persists through much of tonight, then by definition the system would no longer qualify as a tropical cyclone. The only chance for Omar to hang on despite very strong northerly wind shear is the fact that it is still over SSTs of about 27 C. After 24 h, dry air is expected to envelop the system. Therefore, over this weekend whatever remains of Omar is expected to dissipate ahead of an approaching mid-latitude frontal system. The official NHC forecast shows Omar degenerating into a remnant low by Friday morning and dissipating by Sunday morning, and this scenario is in agreement with the global models. The depression continues to move east-southeast at 9 kt in steering flow around a subtropical ridge to its south, and another, larger low pressure system to its northeast. The other low is forecast to continue to lift northeastward, which should result in an end to the southerly component of Omar's motion tonight or early Friday. By Friday night, a turn to the northeast is expected to occur as Omar gets caught in southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching frontal system. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and lies near the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 35.2N 59.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 35.2N 58.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/0000Z 35.6N 57.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1200Z 36.8N 56.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0000Z 38.3N 55.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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