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Tropical Depression Omar Graphics
2020-09-03 22:36:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2020 20:36:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2020 21:24:55 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nana Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-09-03 22:36:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 032036 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Nana Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 400 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that Nana continues to weaken over land, with only a small area of convection remaining near and to the south of the low-level center. It is estimated that Nana has weakened to a 30-kt tropical depression, although as with the last advisory there are no observations near the cyclone's core and thus the estimate is rather uncertain. Continued weakening is expected, and Nana is likely to be a remnant low pressure area by the time it reaches the Gulf of Tehuantepec in 12-24 h. The global models continue to forecast conditions that are not conducive for Nana to re-intensify, so the intensity forecast calls for the remnant low to dissipate by 48 h even though it will be over water. There is a possibility that a low pressure area will re-form over the Pacific in association with the remnants of Nana late this weekend or early next week, but the chances of re-generation to a tropical cyclone appear low at this time. The initial motion is 255/12 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Nana should keep it moving on a westward to west-southwestward track during the remainder of the cyclone's life. The new official forecast track is again similar to the previous track and lies near the various consensus models, KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall with isolated maximum amounts as high as 3 to 6 inches could result in flash flooding in Guatemala and portions of southeastern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 16.0N 91.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 04/0600Z 15.5N 92.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/1800Z 15.0N 95.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0600Z 14.7N 97.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Nana Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-09-03 22:36:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 032035 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 2100 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nana (AT1/AL162020)
2020-09-03 22:35:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NANA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 4:00 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 the center of Nana was located near 16.0, -91.1 with movement WSW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Nana Public Advisory Number 11
2020-09-03 22:35:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 032035 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nana Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 400 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020 ...NANA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 91.1W ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM WSW OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nana was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 91.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Nana will move over western Guatemala and southeastern Mexico tonight, then move over the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and Nana is expected to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible near the center of Nana for the next few hours. RAINFALL: Nana is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Friday: Central to western Guatemala and the Mexican state of Chiapas: 3 to 6 inches, isolated totals of 8 inches. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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