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Tropical Depression Omar Public Advisory Number 12
2020-09-03 16:34:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 031434 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Omar Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 ...OMAR STILL A DEPRESSION... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.9N 61.1W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Omar was located near latitude 35.9 North, longitude 61.1 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday morning, accompanied by a slight decrease in forward speed. A turn toward the east-northeast and northeast is expected Friday and Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Omar is expected to become a remnant low on Friday, or possibly sooner. The remnant low should dissipate on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-09-03 16:34:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 031434 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 1500 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 61.1W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 61.1W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 61.7W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 35.8N 59.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 35.6N 57.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 36.2N 56.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 37.8N 55.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N 61.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Depression Omar Graphics
2020-09-03 10:45:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2020 08:45:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2020 09:24:36 GMT
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-09-03 10:45:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 030845 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 AM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 Omar continues to produce bursts of deep convection with the center occasionally obscured beneath the northern edge of the convective canopy. Based on last evening's ASCAT pass and a recent classification of T2.0 from TAFB, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. Amazingly, 50 kt of north-northwesterly shear has not been enough to prevent deep convection from developing, likely because Omar remains in an unstable thermodynamic environment and over sea surface temperatures of 27-28 degrees Celsius. These conditions are not expected to become less conducive for convective development, and the only thing that will likely make it harder for Omar to maintain convection will be the shear vector becoming increasingly out of phase with the storm motion vector during the next couple of days. With the current round of convection ongoing, it may take a little while longer for Omar to degenerate to a remnant low, and that occurrence has been pushed to 24 hours in the NHC forecast. Dissipation has been moved to 60 hours since all global models indicate that the remnant low's circulation should open up into a trough by then. Omar is moving eastward (090/12 kt) along the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge. A general eastward motion should continue for the next 24 hours, with Omar then turning toward the northeast by 48 hours ahead of an approaching cold front. The NHC track forecast is down the middle of the tightly packed guidance suite, and this new prediction is very close to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 36.3N 62.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 36.0N 60.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 35.8N 58.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1800Z 36.1N 57.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z 37.2N 55.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression Omar (AT5/AL152020)
2020-09-03 10:44:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OMAR REFUSES TO GIVE IN TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 3 the center of Omar was located near 36.3, -62.4 with movement E at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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