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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-09-02 22:38:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 022038 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 PM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 Conventional satellite imagery shows that Omar's cloud pattern is rapidly deteriorating, and the surface circulation center has become quite ill-defined. This morning's METOP-A/B scatterometer passes revealed only a few 33 kt winds well to the southeast of the center and it's reasonable to determine that those winds are no longer present. Therefore, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this advisory and is further supported by the subjective satellite intensity T-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The latest global model runs agree with the depression degenerating to a remnant low in 24 hours, or less, and the NHC intensity forecast follows suit. Dissipation of the remnant low should occur no later than Saturday evening. Omar's initial motion is estimated to be due east, or 090/13 kt, within the mid-latitude westerlies north of a subtropical ridge stretching east to west over the central Atlantic. Omar should continue moving eastward through Friday, although a couple of the global models are showing a track a bit more east-southeastward. Around the 60 hour period, the remnant low is expected to reduce in forward speed, and turn toward the east-northeast in response to an approaching baroclinic system entering the northwest Atlantic. The NHC forecast is nudged just a little to the right of the previous one, and lies close to the HCCA and TVCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 36.1N 65.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 36.1N 63.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 36.0N 61.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/0600Z 35.7N 59.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1800Z 35.7N 57.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0600Z 35.9N 56.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Omar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-09-02 22:38:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 022037 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Tropical Depression Omar (AT5/AL152020)
2020-09-02 22:38:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OMAR WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW THURSDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 2 the center of Omar was located near 36.1, -65.7 with movement E at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Omar Public Advisory Number 9
2020-09-02 22:38:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 022037 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Omar Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 PM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 ...OMAR WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.1N 65.7W ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM N OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Omar was located near latitude 36.1 North, longitude 65.7 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the east-northeast with some reduction in forward speed is forecast on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast and Omar is likely to become a remnant low Thursday with dissipation by Saturday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-09-02 22:37:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 022037 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 65.7W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 80SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 65.7W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 66.4W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 36.1N 63.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 36.0N 61.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 35.7N 59.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 35.7N 57.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 35.9N 56.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N 65.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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