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Tropical Depression Nana Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-09-03 22:35:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 032035 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 2100 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 91.1W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 91.1W AT 03/2100Z...INLAND AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 90.5W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.5N 92.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.0N 95.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.7N 97.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 91.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-09-03 22:34:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 032034 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 PM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 The GOES-16 visible and enhanced infrared satellite presentation has changed little during the past several hours and is comprised of a sheared depression with a deep convective mass decoupled well to the south of the surface circulation center. Based on the earlier METOP-B scatterometer pass and the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity remains at 30 kt. Gradual weakening is still forecast during the next couple of days as the cyclone continues to move in the persistent, blistering northerly shear environment on the order of 40 to 45 kt. Large-scale models insist that Omar will degenerate to a remnant low in 24 hours, or less, and dissipate by Sunday morning. The NHC forecast will, once again, reflect this scenario. It appears that the slightly larger non-tropical low a few hundred miles to the east-northeast of Omar is causing the depression to move in an east-southeastward fashion at 9 kt. This binary interaction is only temporary, however, and Omar should return to an eastward track by Friday morning as the low pressure system downstream accelerates northeastward. Afterward, a turn toward the northeast is forecast early Saturday morning in response to an approaching frontal boundary from the northwest, and the Azores high several hundred miles to the east building southwestward over the central Atlantic. The official forecast is a little to the south of the previous advisory and is based on a blend of the various multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 35.4N 60.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 35.3N 58.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 35.3N 57.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0600Z 36.3N 56.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1800Z 37.5N 56.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Depression Omar (AT5/AL152020)
2020-09-03 22:34:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OMAR MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW FRIDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 3 the center of Omar was located near 35.4, -60.1 with movement ESE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Omar Public Advisory Number 13
2020-09-03 22:34:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 032034 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Omar Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 PM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 ...OMAR MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.4N 60.1W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Omar was located near latitude 35.4 North, longitude 60.1 West. The depression is temporarily moving toward the east-southeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a turn back toward the east accompanied by a slight decrease in forward speed is expected by Friday morning. A turn toward the northeast and north-northeast is forecast Saturday morning and Saturday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Omar is expected to become a remnant low on Friday, or possibly sooner. The remnant low should dissipate by Sunday morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Omar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2020-09-03 22:34:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 032034 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 2100 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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