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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2019-10-20 10:44:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 20 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 200844 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192019 0900 UTC SUN OCT 20 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO PLAYA PERULA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 104.0W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 104.0W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 104.0W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.3N 104.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.6N 104.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 104.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 20/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Octave Graphics
2019-10-19 17:01:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 15:01:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 15:31:14 GMT
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Tropical Depression Octave Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-10-19 16:58:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 191458 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Octave Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019 Octave's last bit of deep convection dissipated about 6 hours ago, around 0900 UTC, leaving the cyclone as a swirl of low-level clouds. The maximum winds are still estimated to be 30 kt based mainly on the CI number from TAFB. Octave could still produce intermittent bursts of convection during the next several days, but increased shear and a dry air mass with mid-level relative humidities of 30-40 percent are likely to keep the activity from being persistent or well organized. If deep convection doesn't redevelop soon, then Octave would be declared a remnant low later today. The cyclone's maximum winds should decrease a little more in the short term, but the remnant low is likely to persist near the Intertropical Convergence Zone for the entire 5-day forecast period. Octave is moving slowly east-northeastward, or 070/2 kt. The depression is caught in a weak steering pattern, and it is likely to meander around for the next 5 days, never reaching speeds any higher than about 3 kt. No significant changes to the NHC track forecast were made from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 11.5N 125.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 11.6N 125.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 20/1200Z 11.3N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 21/0000Z 10.9N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/1200Z 10.8N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1200Z 11.4N 125.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1200Z 12.5N 124.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1200Z 12.6N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression Octave (EP3/EP182019)
2019-10-19 16:57:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OCTAVE EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Oct 19 the center of Octave was located near 11.5, -125.9 with movement ENE at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Octave Public Advisory Number 8
2019-10-19 16:57:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 191457 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Octave Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019 ...OCTAVE EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 125.9W ABOUT 1315 MI...2115 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Octave was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 125.9 West. Octave is moving toward the east-northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow and erratic motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Octave is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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