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Tropical Depression Octave Forecast Advisory Number 7
2019-10-19 10:36:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 984 WTPZ23 KNHC 190836 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019 0900 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 126.4W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 126.4W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 126.5W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 11.7N 126.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 11.6N 125.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 11.2N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 11.0N 125.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 11.7N 125.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 12.4N 124.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 13.0N 124.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 126.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-10-17 22:50:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 17 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 172033 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Conventional satellite imagery and a series of microwave overpasses indicate that the area of low pressure located about 1400 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has developed a well-defined center of circulation. The much improved cloud pattern consists of prominent convective curved bands in the east semicircle and recent bursts of deep convection with cold cloud tops of -70C near the center. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB support an initial intensity of 30 kt, and advisories are being initiated on a tropical depression at this time. The intensity forecast is a bit hazy. However, all of the large- scale models and the statistical-dynamical intensity guidance show only slight intensification through the 72 hour period. The inhibiting contribution appears to be a rather dry low- to mid-level surrounding environment. Beyond 72 hours, most of the global and regional models show the cyclone weakening into a remnant low and remaining embedded in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Consequently, the NHC forecast calls for only modest strengthening into a tropical storm in 12 hours, then weakening back to a depression in 36 hours. Through the remainder of the forecast, the cyclone should degenerate into a remnant low in 3 days or less, as the global guidance shows. The initial motion appears to be a rather unpredictable slow drift within weak low- to mid-level steering currents while attached to the ITCZ. The global models are unanimous in maintaining an erratic looping track pattern through the entire period, and the official forecast follows suit, based primarily on a blend of the GFS and ECMWF deterministic models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 10.1N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 10.3N 126.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 10.8N 126.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 11.4N 126.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 11.6N 125.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 11.1N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1800Z 10.9N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/1800Z 11.7N 124.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eighteen-E (EP3/EP182019)
2019-10-17 22:50:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Oct 17 the center of Eighteen-E was located near 10.1, -126.5 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
2019-10-17 22:50:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 17 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 172033 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 17 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.1N 126.5W ABOUT 1410 MI...2265 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen-E was located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 126.5 West. The depression is drifting toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). The system is forecast to meander with little net motion expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected, and the cyclone is likely to become a tropical storm by Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2019-10-17 22:50:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 17 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 172033 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019 2100 UTC THU OCT 17 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 126.5W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 126.5W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 126.4W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 10.3N 126.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 10.8N 126.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 11.4N 126.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 11.6N 125.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 11.1N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 10.9N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 11.7N 124.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 126.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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