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Tropical Depression Octave Graphics
2019-10-19 10:37:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 08:37:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 08:37:59 GMT
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Tropical Depression Octave Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-10-19 10:37:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 190837 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Octave Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019 Dry air and southeasterly shear are taking their toll on Octave. Small bursts of intermittent convection continue to the northwest of Octave's center, and the lack of persistent deep convection over the center is causing the low to gradually spin down. The latest subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB suggests winds have decreased to 30 kt, with even lower intensity estimates from SAB and UW-CIMSS ADT. Given that the overnight scatterometer missed the system, and the fact it does take time to spin down these lows, the initial intensity is lowered generously to 30 kt. Octave will continue to be in a hostile environment with about 25 kt of southeasterly wind shear and in the presence very dry air for the next few days. This should prevent any deep convection from persisting over the cyclone long enough to maintain the current vortex. Thus, a gradual weakening trend should continue, and Octave may become a remnant low by tonight. Even after the system becomes a remnant low, there could be occasional development of convection. However, at this time it is not believed that this convection will be sufficient enough to cause the cyclone to regenerate. This remnant low is expected to persist through the end of the forecast period. Octave is drifting northeast and it should remain in a weak flow regime for the entire forecast period. The official NHC forecast shows a meandering motion for the next several days, and the forecast track lies near the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 11.5N 126.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 11.7N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 11.6N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/1800Z 11.2N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/0600Z 11.0N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/0600Z 11.7N 125.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/0600Z 12.4N 124.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/0600Z 13.0N 124.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Depression Octave (EP3/EP182019)
2019-10-19 10:36:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OCTAVE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Oct 19 the center of Octave was located near 11.5, -126.4 with movement NE at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Octave Public Advisory Number 7
2019-10-19 10:36:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 190836 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Octave Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019 ...OCTAVE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 126.4W ABOUT 1340 MI...2160 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Octave was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 126.4 West. Octave is drifting northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h), and will continue to move slowly and erratically the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight weakening is expected today and Octave could become a remnant low later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Octave Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2019-10-19 10:36:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 190836 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019 0900 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 5(14) 1(15) 1(16) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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