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Tropical Depression Seven Graphics

2019-09-03 16:49:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 03 Sep 2019 14:49:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 03 Sep 2019 15:32:34 GMT

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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Discussion Number 2

2019-09-03 16:44:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 031444 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 First-light visible imagery indicates that the circulation of the low pressure area in the western Gulf of Mexico has become better defined, and that the system has sufficient organized convection to be designated a tropical depression. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based mainly on persistence from earlier scatterometer data. The initial motion is 260/6. A deep-layer ridge over the southern United States is expected to steer the cyclone generally westward to west-northwestward through its lifetime. The new forecast track is between the HCCA and the TVCA consensus models and calls for the center to reach the northeastern coast of Mexico in about 36 h. The new track is shifted a little to the north of the previous track, but not significantly far enough to increase the threat to south Texas. Conditions appear conducive for gradual strengthening before the cyclone moves into Mexico. However, the broad and large nature of the circulation is likely to prevent rapid intensification before landfall. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast and calls for the system to become a tropical storm before reaching Mexico, followed by dissipation over northeastern Mexico by 72 h. The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous areas of Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 23.6N 94.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 23.4N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 23.6N 96.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 24.1N 97.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 24.8N 98.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Depression Seven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

2019-09-03 16:44:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 031444 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 250N 960W 34 1 7( 8) 8(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) LA PESCA MX 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 9(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) LA PESCA MX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Tropical Depression Seven (AT2/AL072019)

2019-09-03 16:44:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 3 the center of Seven was located near 23.6, -94.9 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Advisory Number 2

2019-09-03 16:44:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 031444 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA PESCA TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 94.9W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 94.9W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 94.6W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 23.4N 95.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.6N 96.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.1N 97.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.8N 98.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 94.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 03/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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