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Tropical Depression Seven Public Advisory Number 2
2019-09-03 16:44:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 031444 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 ...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.6N 94.9W ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * La Pesca to Barra El Mezquital A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northeastern coast of Mexico and the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings could be required later today for portions of these areas. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 94.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A motion toward the west- northwest is forecast tonight and Wednesday. This motion could bring the system near or over the coast of northeastern Mexico late Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast before the system moves inland, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area during the day Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Squalls with gusts to tropical-storm force are likely north of the warning area along portions of the northeastern coast of Mexico and the lower Texas coast. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Northeast Mexico: 6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches, highest in the Sierra Madre Oriental of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon. This rainfall may cause life-threatening mudslides and flash floods. South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Erin Graphics
2019-08-29 04:39:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Aug 2019 02:39:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Aug 2019 03:31:40 GMT
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Tropical Depression Erin Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-08-29 04:38:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 290238 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Erin Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 After being devoid of deep convection for much of the day, new convection has developed around the center of Erin's circulation over the past couple of hours, giving it a little more time as a tropical cyclone. The current objective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB is 30 kt, and so that will remain the initial intensity for this advisory. Westerly shear should prevent any intensification of Erin while it remains a tropical cyclone tonight. On Thursday, the cyclone should merge with a frontal system while it undergoes extratropical transition. Thereafter, the merged system could strengthen due to baroclinic processes. Erin has accelerated and is now moving at 025/18 kt. The cyclone is expected to move even faster to the northeast on Thursday and continue northeastward until it merges with another extratropical low by late Friday. The updated NHC track forecast is changed little from the previous advisory, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 35.6N 72.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 38.0N 70.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 30/0000Z 42.4N 66.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 30/1200Z 47.3N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Depression Erin (AT1/AL062019)
2019-08-29 04:38:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERIN HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL THURSDAY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 the center of Erin was located near 35.6, -72.1 with movement NNE at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Erin Public Advisory Number 10
2019-08-29 04:38:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 290238 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Erin Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 ...ERIN HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.6N 72.1W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Erin was located near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 72.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and a turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Erin is expected to transition to an extratropical cyclone on Thursday and then become absorbed by a larger low pressure system on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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