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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2019-07-27 16:32:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 27 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 271432 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019 1500 UTC SAT JUL 27 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 123.8W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 123.8W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 123.0W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 11.3N 126.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 11.9N 128.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 12.5N 131.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.2N 133.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.5N 139.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 15.5N 144.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 16.5N 149.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 123.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression Dalila Graphics
2019-07-25 10:37:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 25 Jul 2019 08:37:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 25 Jul 2019 09:24:18 GMT
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Tropical Depression Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 13
2019-07-25 10:35:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 250835 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Dalila Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2019 Dalila is still technically a tropical cyclone based on the development of new convection within 70-75 nmi northeast of the center, which barely results in a Dvorak current intensity estimate of T1.5/25 kt. In addition, a 0539Z ASCAT-C overpass indicated a few 25-kt vectors were present in the northern semicircle. Therefore, Dalila remains a 25-kt tropical depression for this advisory. Having said that, recent satellite trends indicate that the convection is beginning to separate and move away from the low-level center due to northwesterly vertical wind shear, and this negative trend should continue, resulting in Dalila degenerating into a remnant low pressure system later today while the system moves over 24 deg C water. Dissipation of the cyclone is expected in 48-72 hours. Dalila is moving slowly northwestward or 315/05 kt. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected by this afternoon, followed by a westward motion on Friday and Saturday, which is expected to continue until dissipation occurs. The new official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the simple consensus model TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 21.6N 120.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 22.0N 121.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/0600Z 22.5N 122.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1800Z 22.8N 124.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0600Z 23.1N 125.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Depression Dalila (EP5/EP052019)
2019-07-25 10:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DALILA BARELY A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 the center of Dalila was located near 21.6, -120.4 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Dalila Public Advisory Number 13
2019-07-25 10:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 250832 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Dalila Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2019 ...DALILA BARELY A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 120.4W ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Dalila was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 120.4 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue this morning. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur this afternoon, and that general motion should continue until the system dissipates in a couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Dalila is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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