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Tropical Depression Six-E Graphics
2019-07-27 16:35:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 27 Jul 2019 14:35:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 27 Jul 2019 15:24:30 GMT
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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-07-27 16:33:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Sat Jul 27 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 271433 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 500 AM HST Sat Jul 27 2019 The area of disturbed weather that NHC has been tracking for several days across the eastern Pacific has developed enough organized convection near the center of circulation, and is now classified as a 30-kt tropical depression. This is supported by T2.0 Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB. The depression is embedded within a good environment for intensification of low shear and high SSTs. Despite the environment, most of the models show only a very modest strengthening. The NHC forecast is a little more aggressive than the models and is above the intensity consensus. The depression is anticipated to become a tropical storm later today and reach hurricane status by the end of the forecast period. The depression is well embedded within the deep easterly flow south of a subtropical ridge and is moving westward at 16 kt. Since this steering flow pattern is not forecast to change much, the cyclone should continue on a general west or west-northwest track through the next 5 days, perhaps with a small decrease in forward speed. The NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus and very near the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 11.3N 123.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 11.3N 126.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 11.9N 128.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 12.5N 131.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 13.2N 133.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 14.5N 139.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 15.5N 144.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 16.5N 149.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Depression Six-E (EP1/EP062019)
2019-07-27 16:33:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... ...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND... As of 5:00 AM HST Sat Jul 27 the center of Six-E was located near 11.3, -123.8 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Six-E Public Advisory Number 1
2019-07-27 16:33:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Sat Jul 27 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 271433 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 500 AM HST Sat Jul 27 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... ...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.3N 123.8W ABOUT 1215 MI...1955 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 2160 MI...3475 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of the newly formed Tropical Depression Six-E was located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 123.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). This motion with a gradual turn to the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 2 to 3 days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression Six-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2019-07-27 16:33:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 27 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 271433 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019 1500 UTC SAT JUL 27 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 125W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 10N 130W 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 27(40) X(40) X(40) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 27(63) 1(64) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 17(27) X(27) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 19(53) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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