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Tropical Depression Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-07-08 10:34:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 08 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 080834 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Cosme Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032019 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 08 2019 Cosme continues to gradually weaken over 23 to 24 degree C waters and in a dry and stable atmospheric environment with about 10 to 15 kt of westerly shear. The depression now consists of scattered mid- to high- level debris clouds over a low-level swirl, with a small area of convection located nearly 200 n mi northeast the system's center. A scatterometer pass at 0450 UTC showed peak winds of 25 kt associated with Cosme's circulation. This intensity agrees with the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and ADT and will be the depression's initial intensity for this advisory. The unfavorable environmental conditions for Cosme will not improve as the depression continues to move over cooler waters today. This should prevent any significant amounts of deep convection from developing near the system's center, and Cosme is expected to become a remnant low at some point later on today. The initial motion of Cosme is northwest at 8 kt. This general motion will continue through today with a slowing in forward speed. Thereafter, the remnant low will drift northwestward to west-northwestward in the low-level flow until it dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 19.8N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 20.4N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 09/0600Z 21.0N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/1800Z 21.5N 122.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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Tropical Depression Cosme Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2019-07-08 10:34:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 08 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 080834 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019 0900 UTC MON JUL 08 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Depression Cosme (EP3/EP032019)
2019-07-08 10:33:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...COSME EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Jul 8 the center of Cosme was located near 19.8, -120.1 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Cosme Public Advisory Number 8
2019-07-08 10:33:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 08 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 080833 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Cosme Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032019 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 08 2019 ...COSME EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 120.1W ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Cosme was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 120.1 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days with a decrease in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Cosme is expected to weaken to a remnant low later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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Tropical Depression Cosme Graphics
2019-07-08 04:32:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 08 Jul 2019 02:32:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 08 Jul 2019 03:24:12 GMT
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