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Tropical Depression Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 8
2018-09-24 10:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 429 WTNT22 KNHC 240832 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 0900 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 37.4W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 37.4W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 36.4W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 9.9N 40.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 10.2N 44.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 10.5N 48.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 10.9N 51.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 12.1N 57.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 13.2N 61.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 14.0N 66.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.5N 37.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2018-09-24 10:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 473 FONT12 KNHC 240832 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 0900 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 2(14) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Kirk Graphics
2018-09-24 04:42:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Sep 2018 02:42:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Sep 2018 03:22:04 GMT
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Tropical Depression Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 7
2018-09-24 04:41:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 697 WTNT22 KNHC 240241 CCA TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 0300 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 CORRECTED 12 FT SEAS RADII THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 35.5W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 35.5W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 34.3W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 9.8N 39.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 10.0N 43.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 10.3N 47.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 10.6N 50.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 11.7N 56.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 13.0N 60.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 14.0N 65.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.4N 35.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-09-24 04:39:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 440 WTNT42 KNHC 240239 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Kirk Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 Kirk is looking increasingly disheveled in satellite imagery. A pair of ASCAT passes between 2300 and 0000 UTC indicated that Kirk has likely opened up into a trough of low pressure and no longer has a closed surface circulation. However, no recent visible imagery or surface observations are available to confirm this. Since the ASCAT passes showed a few 25-30 kt wind vectors on the north side of the alleged circulation, Kirk is being maintained as a 30 kt tropical depression for now. The ASCAT data showed almost no sign of the previous surface center of Kirk, so the initial position was shifted significantly to the west, closer to the wave axis. As a result, the NHC track forecast has also been shifted significantly westward (faster) at all forecast hours, especially from 12-72 h. Whether Kirk is a tropical wave, depression, or storm, it should continue moving rapidly westward for the next couple of days. By mid-week, the system will reach a break in the subtropical ridge which will result in a slower forward speed as it approaches and enters the Caribbean. The NHC track forecast remains on the south side of the guidance envelope, and is closest to the corrected consensus aid, HCCA. It is likely that the fast forward speed is preventing Kirk from becoming better organized and strengthening, and the global models do not suggest that it will slow down substantially for the next couple of days. While it is not explicitly reflected in the forecast, Kirk could dissipate into a tropical wave at any time, if it hasn't already. By the end of the forecast period, the slower motion of Kirk could allow for some reorganization, however strong vertical wind shear over the Caribbean will likely prevent the system from significantly strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted down, and is now essentially a blend of the global and regional dynamical model forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 9.4N 35.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 9.8N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 10.0N 43.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 10.3N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 10.6N 50.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 11.7N 56.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 13.0N 60.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 14.0N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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