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Tropical Depression Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2018-09-24 04:38:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 708 FONT12 KNHC 240238 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 0300 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Tropical Depression Kirk (AT2/AL122018)
2018-09-24 04:37:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KIRK WEAKER AND ACCELERATING WESTWARD... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 23 the center of Kirk was located near 9.4, -35.5 with movement W at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Kirk Public Advisory Number 7
2018-09-24 04:37:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 618 WTNT32 KNHC 240237 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Kirk Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 ...KIRK WEAKER AND ACCELERATING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.4N 35.5W ABOUT 835 MI...1345 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Kirk was located near latitude 9.4 North, longitude 35.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 25 mph (41 km/h). A rapid westward motion is anticipated for the next day or two. A slight decrease in forward motion is expected by mid-week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in the maximum winds is forecast during the next several days. It is possible that Kirk could degenerate into a trough of low pressure during the next day or two while it moves quickly across the tropical central Atlantic. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Eleven Graphics
2018-09-23 10:33:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 23 Sep 2018 08:33:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 23 Sep 2018 09:21:53 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-09-23 10:32:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 959 WTNT41 KNHC 230832 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018 500 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 Satellite images indicate that the depression is poorly organized. The circulation is becoming increasingly elongated, and it seems likely that a closed circulation may no longer exist. However, we are maintaining advisories for now to wait for visible imagery to better assess the low-level circulation. The depression continues to produce a few patches of deep convection, but these are confined to the east and northeast portions of the circulation due to about 35 kt of westerly shear. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data. The system is moving into an environment of even stronger westerly wind shear. These hostile winds and dry air should cause the depression to dissipate, if it has not already, later today or tonight. The depression, or its remnants, are expected to move slowly west-northwestward for another day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 14.5N 55.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 15.0N 56.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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