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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Public Advisory Number 2
2018-09-08 22:48:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018 511 WTPZ33 KNHC 082048 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018 ...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 116.8W ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen-E was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 116.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower motion toward the northwest or west-northwest is anticipated for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and could become a hurricane on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2018-09-08 22:48:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 221 WTPZ23 KNHC 082048 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 2100 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 116.8W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 360SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 116.8W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 116.5W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.5N 117.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.6N 118.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.9N 119.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.9N 121.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.0N 125.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 22.3N 129.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 23.5N 132.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 116.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-09-08 19:19:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 337 WTPZ23 KNHC 081719 CCA TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 1500 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 CORRECTED WIND GUSTS FROM 12 HOURS TO 48 HOURS AND 120 HOURS THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 115.9W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 115.9W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 115.4W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.6N 116.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.7N 117.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.9N 118.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.1N 119.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.5N 123.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 23.0N 126.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 24.5N 129.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 115.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Nine Graphics
2018-09-08 16:57:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 08 Sep 2018 14:57:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 08 Sep 2018 14:57:50 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nine Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-09-08 16:57:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 571 WTNT44 KNHC 081457 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 The structure of Tropical Depression Nine is improving as the ongoing shear diminishes, with the convection getting closer to the low-level center. However, recent scatterometer data indicates that the system has not yet become a tropical storm, and the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The cyclone is still moving fairly slowly, with the initial motion now 300/5. The subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to steer the system westward with an increasing forward speed for at least the next 2-3 days. After that time, there is some uncertainty in the track forecast due to the formation of a mid- to upper-level trough over the central Atlantic. The Canadian and UKMET models forecast the cyclone to slow down and turn northwestward near the end of the forecast period due to the trough, while the ECMWF and GFS show a continued westward motion. The track forecast follows the ECMWF/GFS scenario and shows a faster westward motion than the previous forecast. The new forecast also lies near the various consensus models. With the shear diminishing, conditions are becoming more favorable for the cyclone to strengthen during the next 72 h. However, there are still concerns about dry air entraining into the system. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast with the cyclone becoming a tropical storm in about 12 h and a hurricane in about 72 h. After 72 h, the system is expected to encounter another round of shear, which is expected to cause some weakening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 14.6N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 14.7N 36.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 14.8N 38.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 14.8N 40.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 14.8N 43.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 14.5N 49.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 14.5N 55.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 13/1200Z 14.5N 60.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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