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Tropical Depression Paul Forecast Discussion Number 11

2018-09-11 04:46:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018 317 WTPZ43 KNHC 110246 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Paul Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018 Paul remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the associated deep convection limited to the western portion of the circulation. The center of the system is completely exposed and the Dvorak classifications have decreased from all agencies. Based on that data, Paul is now downgraded to a tropical depression with an initial intensity of 30 kt. Although the wind shear is expected to lessen during the next couple of days, Paul will soon cross the 26 deg C isotherm and it will be headed for even cooler waters and a drier airmass during the next few days. These conditions support continued weakening, and Paul will likely become a remnant low in a couple of days or less. The depression has turned toward the west-northwest, with the initial motion estimated to be 300/8 kt. A gradual turn toward the west is expected during the next few days as the cyclone becomes increasingly shallow and is steered by the low-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the south of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 21.6N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 21.9N 123.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 22.3N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 22.6N 127.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 22.9N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0000Z 23.2N 130.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0000Z 23.2N 131.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0000Z 23.0N 133.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Summary for Tropical Depression Paul (EP3/EP182018)

2018-09-11 04:45:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...PAUL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Sep 10 the center of Paul was located near 21.6, -122.0 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Paul Public Advisory Number 11

2018-09-11 04:45:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018 319 WTPZ33 KNHC 110245 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Paul Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018 ...PAUL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 122.0W ABOUT 780 MI...1250 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Paul was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 122.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for a couple of days. A turn to the west is expected by Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Paul is expected to degenerate into a remnant low in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Depression Paul Forecast Advisory Number 11

2018-09-11 04:45:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 320 WTPZ23 KNHC 110245 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 0300 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 122.0W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 122.0W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 121.6W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.9N 123.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.3N 125.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.6N 127.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.9N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.2N 130.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 23.2N 131.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 23.0N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 122.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Depression Paul Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

2018-09-11 04:45:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 317 FOPZ13 KNHC 110245 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 0300 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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