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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-09-08 16:36:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 537 FOPZ13 KNHC 081436 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 1500 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 38(53) 14(67) X(67) X(67) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 9(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 11(30) 2(32) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20(26) 3(29) 25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) 25N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-09-08 16:36:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018 506 WTPZ43 KNHC 081436 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018 The area of low pressure that NHC has been tracking for several days has enough organized deep convection this morning to be classified as a tropical depression. Some northeasterly shear is affecting the cyclone, with the apparent center on the northeastern side of a growing area of deep convection. The initial wind speed is set to 30 kt, in accordance with the Dvorak classification from TAFB. Gradual strengthening is forecast while the cyclone remains over warm waters within a light-to-moderate shear environment. After 72 hours, the water temperatures drop off quite a bit and weakening should begin. The NHC forecast is close to, but a little above, the model consensus near peak intensity to account for the low bias the model guidance has had for many eastern Pacific storms this year. An uncertain initial motion estimate is 290/10. All of the model guidance turn the cyclone northwestward by tomorrow as the cyclone rounds the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge located over Mexico. A turn back toward the west-northwest is anticipated in a few days due to the system coming under the influence of the primary eastern Pacific subtropical ridge. For a first advisory, the model guidance isn't in terrible disagreement, so the NHC prediction will lie near close to the various consensus and corrected-consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 16.1N 115.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 16.6N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 17.7N 117.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 18.9N 118.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 20.1N 119.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 21.5N 123.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 23.0N 126.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 13/1200Z 24.5N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eighteen-E (EP3/EP182018)
2018-09-08 16:36:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BUSY 2018 SEASON... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAND... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 8 the center of Eighteen-E was located near 16.1, -115.9 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
2018-09-08 16:36:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018 327 WTPZ33 KNHC 081436 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018 ...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BUSY 2018 SEASON... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAND... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 115.9W ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen-E was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 115.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A slower motion toward the northwest or west-northwest is anticipated for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and could become a hurricane on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-09-08 16:36:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 326 WTPZ23 KNHC 081436 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 1500 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 115.9W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 115.9W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 115.4W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.6N 116.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.7N 117.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.9N 118.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.1N 119.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.5N 123.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 23.0N 126.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 24.5N 129.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 115.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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