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Tropical Depression Paul Public Advisory Number 13
2018-09-11 16:43:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018 187 WTPZ33 KNHC 111443 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Paul Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018 ...PAUL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 124.1W ABOUT 905 MI...1460 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Paul was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 124.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west and a decrease in forward speed is anticipated over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Paul is expected to weaken into a remnant low on Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Paul Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2018-09-11 16:43:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 166 FOPZ13 KNHC 111443 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 1500 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Depression Paul Forecast Advisory Number 13
2018-09-11 16:43:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 842 WTPZ23 KNHC 111442 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 1500 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 124.1W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 124.1W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 123.6W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.5N 125.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.8N 127.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 23.1N 129.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 23.2N 129.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 23.0N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 124.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Paul Graphics
2018-09-11 10:38:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 11 Sep 2018 08:38:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 11 Sep 2018 08:38:58 GMT
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Tropical Depression Paul Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-09-11 10:35:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018 524 WTPZ43 KNHC 110835 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Paul Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018 Paul's surface circulation continues to be decoupled well to the east of a rather shapeless convective mass that persists only as a result of intermittent bursts of deep convection. The cyclone's intensity is held at depression strength and is a compromise of the TAFB and SAB subjective Dvorak estimates. Within the next 12 hours, Paul will be moving into a stable, drier air mass and over cooler sea surface temperatures. This should support further weakening, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low in 48 hours, which is indicated in the large-scale models and the statistical intensity guidance. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/10 kt, within the steering current produced by a mid-level ridge extending westward over the eastern Pacific from the Baja California peninsula. A slow turn westward is forecast in 36 hours as the weakening cyclone becomes vertically more shallow and is steered by the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The official forecast is again adjusted to the south of the previous package to conform more with the TVCN multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 21.9N 123.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 22.2N 124.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 22.5N 126.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 22.8N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 23.0N 129.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0600Z 23.2N 130.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0600Z 23.2N 132.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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