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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2018-09-09 04:42:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 720 WTPZ23 KNHC 090242 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 0300 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 117.2W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 300SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 117.2W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 117.0W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.0N 118.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.3N 119.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.6N 120.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.5N 122.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.7N 125.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 22.8N 129.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 23.7N 132.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 117.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-09-08 22:51:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018 130 WTPZ43 KNHC 082051 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018 GOES-16 visible imagery shows the center of the depression on the edge of a convective mass, with a large part of the eastern part of the circulation exposed due to shear. Dvorak estimates are a little higher than the last advisory, but the evidence is not strong enough yet to upgrade the system to a tropical storm, so the winds will stay 30 kt. Gradual strengthening is anticipated while the cyclone remains over warm waters within a light-to-moderate shear environment. After 72 hours, the water temperatures drop off quite a bit and weakening should begin. The biggest change is that the model guidance is considerably lower in this cycle, perhaps due to easterly shear persisting for a bit longer. Only a small decrease was made to the intensity forecast at long range, but later advisories could be lower if model trends continue. Visible imagery also helped reposition the depression about a degree west of the last advisory. Ironically, the initial motion estimate is unchanged, still 290/10 kt. A mid-level ridge over Mexico should steer the system northwestward for the next day or so, then the dominant eastern Pacific subtropical ridge is forecast to turn the system back toward the west-northwest. Numerical guidance is a fair distance west of the previous cycle, and the NHC forecast follows that trend, resulting in a large westward adjustment to the NHC forecast after absorbing the initial position change. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 15.8N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 16.5N 117.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 17.6N 118.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 18.9N 119.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 19.9N 121.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 21.0N 125.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 22.3N 129.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 23.5N 132.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Graphics
2018-09-08 22:49:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 08 Sep 2018 20:49:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 08 Sep 2018 20:49:35 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2018-09-08 22:49:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 854 FOPZ13 KNHC 082049 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 2100 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 27(29) 24(53) 3(56) X(56) X(56) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 41(44) 6(50) X(50) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) X(16) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eighteen-E (EP3/EP182018)
2018-09-08 22:48:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 8 the center of Eighteen-E was located near 15.8, -116.8 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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