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Tropical Depression Nine Graphics
2018-09-08 10:56:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 08 Sep 2018 08:56:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 08 Sep 2018 08:56:56 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nine Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-09-08 10:55:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 357 WTNT44 KNHC 080855 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 500 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 The depression continues to be affected by moderate to strong east to southeasterly vertical wind shear, which has resulted in the bulk of the deep convection being displaced to the west of the low-level center. The initial intensity has been held at 30 kt based on Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from both TAFB and SAB. The depression has been meandering in the same general area for the past 12-18 h due to being caught in a weakness in the subtropical ridge. However, recent microwave satellite data suggest that the cyclone is now moving slowly northwestward. A turn toward the west is expected to occur later today as a shortwave trough to the north that has weakened the ridge lifts out, allowing the ridge to fill back in and build westward to the north of the Lesser Antilles. The latest NHC model guidance suite remains tightly packed, and the official forecast track lies down the middle of the envelope near a blend of the consensus aids TCVA, HCCA, FSSE. Although the wind shear is forecast to gradually weaken and become less than 5 kt by 36-48 h, which would favor rapid strengthening, the airmass that the cyclone is embedded is fairly dry. Since mid-level humidity values are forecast to decrease from the current 60-percent range down to around 50 percent by 48 hours and beyond, only modest strengthening is expected during the next 4 days. By day 5, vertical wind shear from the southwest is forecast to increase to 20-25 kt, serving to cap the intensification process. The NHC intensity forecast is based on a blend of the IVCN and the HCCA consensus models, and continues to remain below the stronger HWRF model at days 4 and 5, which makes the cyclone a major hurricane in 78 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 14.3N 35.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 14.4N 36.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 14.5N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 14.7N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 14.6N 42.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 14.5N 47.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 14.6N 52.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 14.9N 57.2W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Nine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2018-09-08 10:55:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 330 FONT14 KNHC 080855 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 0900 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nine (AT4/AL092018)
2018-09-08 10:55:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 8 the center of Nine was located near 14.3, -35.4 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Nine Public Advisory Number 3
2018-09-08 10:55:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 439 WTNT34 KNHC 080854 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 500 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 35.4W ABOUT 1720 MI...2765 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 35.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected later today, and that general motion at a slightly faster forward speed is forecast to continue through the weekend and into early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by early next week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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