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Tropical Depression Nine Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-09-07 22:58:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018 888 WTNT44 KNHC 072058 CCA TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 1...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 500 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018 Corrected bin number from 2 to 4 Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system over the eastern tropical Atlantic has developed a well-defined center and sufficient deep convection to be classified a tropical depression, the ninth one of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season and second one of the day. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on a 2.0 Dvorak classification from TAFB and earlier ASCAT data. The depression has not moved much today, and it has even wobbled a bit to the east recently. This slow motion is a result of very weak steering with broad troughing to the north and Tropical Depression Eight to its east. Little motion is expected through tonight, but a westward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is forecast thereafter as a subtropical ridge builds to the north of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast lies closest to the HCCA guidance and takes the system toward the Lesser Antilles by the end of the forecast period. The depression is experiencing some influences of easterly shear, which is why the center is currently on the eastern edge of the convection. Little change in intensity is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours since the cyclone is still in the developing stage and because moderate shear is expected to continue. However, the shear is expected to decrease to less than 10 kt in about 24 hours. These more favorable winds aloft combined with relatively warm waters and a fairly moist airmass should allow for steady strengthening beginning later in the weekend. There is a large spread in the intensity guidance, with the HWRF showing the system becoming a major hurricane and HMON showing almost no strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast lies a little below consensus models since it appears that it will take some time for the system to strengthen. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 13.6N 34.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 13.9N 35.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 14.0N 36.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 14.0N 37.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 14.0N 39.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 14.0N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 14.1N 48.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 14.5N 54.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Nine Graphics
2018-09-07 22:58:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 07 Sep 2018 20:58:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 07 Sep 2018 20:46:31 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-09-07 22:58:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018 930 FONT14 KNHC 072057 CCA PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 2100 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018 CORRECTED BIN NUMNER FROM 2 TO 4 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nine (AT4/AL092018)
2018-09-07 22:58:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 7 the center of Nine was located near 13.6, -34.9 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Nine Public Advisory Number 1
2018-09-07 22:58:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018 183 WTNT34 KNHC 072057 CCA TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 1...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 500 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018 Corrected bin number from 2 TO 4 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 34.9W ABOUT 1755 MI...2820 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 34.9 West. The depression is stationary and little motion is expected through tonight. A westward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected this weekend and early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next 24 hours, but gradual strengthening is forecast late this weekend and early next week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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