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Tropical Depression Nine Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-09-07 22:57:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018 042 WTNT24 KNHC 072057 CCA TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 2100 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018 CORRECTED BIN NUMBER FROM 2 TO 4 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 34.9W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 34.9W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 34.9W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.9N 35.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.0N 36.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.0N 37.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.0N 39.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.0N 44.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 14.1N 48.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 14.5N 54.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 34.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Eight Graphics
2018-09-07 22:56:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 07 Sep 2018 20:56:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 07 Sep 2018 20:56:02 GMT
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Tropical Depression Gordon Public Advisory Number 22
2018-09-07 22:50:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Sep 07 2018
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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-09-07 22:46:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018 413 WTNT43 KNHC 072046 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 500 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018 Satellite data and surface observations indicate that the low pressure system located just west of the coast of Africa has developed into a tropical depression. Conventional satellite imagery shows a well-defined convective band has formed near the center, and microwave satellite imagery has hinted at the formation of an inner ring of convection. The initial intensity of 30 kt and the central pressure of 1002 mb are based on surface observations from ships and the west coast of Africa. The depression currently has good cirrus outflow in all directions. The initial motion is 275/9. During the next 3-4 days, the cyclone should move generally west-northwestward with an increase in forward speed on the south side of the subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. Near the end of the forecast period, a developing mid- to upper-level trough over the central Atlantic is expected to weaken the ridge and allow the cyclone to turn northwestward with a decrease in forward speed. There is some spread in the guidance late in the period, with the UKMET and the Canadian models showing an earlier turn than the other models. The new forecast track, which is similar to the previous track, is in best agreement with the TVCN and HCCA consensus models. The depression is in an environment of light to moderate easterly vertical shear and over sea surface temperatures of 27-28C. This should allow at least steady strengthening, and rapid strengthening is possible based on the hints of the inner core in microwave imagery. This portion of the intensity forecast has been increased to the upper edge of the intensity guidance, with the cyclone forecast to become a tropical storm in 12 h or less and a hurricane between 48-72 h. After 72 h, the system should be over sea surface temperatures near 26C and encountering southwesterly vertical shear due to the aforementioned trough. This should cause at least a gradual weakening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 13.2N 18.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 13.5N 19.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 13.9N 21.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 14.4N 24.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 14.9N 27.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 16.5N 33.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 18.0N 38.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 20.5N 42.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eight (AT3/AL082018)
2018-09-07 22:46:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 7 the center of Eight was located near 13.2, -18.6 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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