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Tropical Depression Nine Forecast Advisory Number 3
2018-09-08 10:55:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 440 WTNT24 KNHC 080854 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 0900 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 35.4W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 35.4W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 35.2W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.4N 36.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.5N 37.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.7N 39.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 14.6N 42.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.5N 47.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 14.6N 52.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 14.9N 57.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 35.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Nine Graphics
2018-09-08 04:56:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 08 Sep 2018 02:56:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 08 Sep 2018 03:40:52 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nine Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-09-08 04:55:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018 720 WTNT44 KNHC 080255 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018 The depression continues to be impeded by moderate easterly shear with the center of circulation decoupled to the east of a deep convective banding feature. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The dynamical-statistical intensity guidance, as well as the large-scale models, indicate that the shear should diminish to less than 10 kt within the next 24 hours. A more favorable upper-wind pattern along with warm oceanic temperatures is expected to promote steady strengthening commencing after that time. The intensity forecast is based on a blend of the IVCN and the HCCA consensus models and remains below the stronger HWRF at days 4 and 5. The depression has been meandering during the past several hours, as a result of weak low- to mid-level steering currents created by a deep-layer trough digging southward over the eastern Atlantic. In 12 to 24 hours, a westward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is forecast thereafter as the trough lifts northeast, and the subtropical ridge re-establishes to the north of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast lies closest to the HCCA and TVCN guidance and takes the system toward the Lesser Antilles by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 13.9N 34.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 14.1N 35.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 14.2N 36.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 14.3N 38.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 14.4N 40.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 14.4N 45.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 14.4N 50.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 14.9N 56.2W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Nine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2018-09-08 04:55:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 458 FONT14 KNHC 080254 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 0300 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nine (AT4/AL092018)
2018-09-08 04:55:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION MEANDERING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 7 the center of Nine was located near 13.9, -34.9 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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