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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-08-05 16:36:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 621 WTPZ41 KNHC 051436 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 Latest visible satellite images indicate that the tropical cyclone is gradually becoming better organized. The center is estimated to be on the northern side of a small circular area of deep convection, with a developing band of convection over the southern semicircle of the circulation. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB. Since the center is still not easy to locate, the initial motion is a rather uncertain 290/10 kt. The primary steering mechanisms for the system are a mid-level ridge to the north and a developing cyclone to the west. It is not clear just how much interaction will occur between the two cyclones, and it is likely that some of the model vortex tracks are not representative in the 2-3 day time frame. The forecast track is somewhat north of the previous one but near the southern side of the guidance envelope. This is close to the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach, HCCA, track. The GFS and ECMWF global model predictions indicate that the circulation to the west of Eleven-E will become dominant. In fact, the GFS indicates that this circulation will absorb the tropical cyclone within a day or so. The ECMWF indicates that this absorption will occur several days later, and the official forecast calls for dissipation in 3-4 days. If the western circulation does not become the dominant system, then Eleven-E could strengthen more than indicated here, as shown by some of the other guidance. Interest along the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system, given the uncertainties in the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 13.5N 97.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 14.1N 98.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 15.3N 100.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 16.9N 103.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 18.3N 106.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 20.5N 112.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2018-08-05 16:36:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018 668 FOPZ11 KNHC 051436 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018 1500 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 100W 34 2 39(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) 15N 100W 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) X(30) X(30) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) X(18) X(18) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Advisory Number 4
2018-08-05 16:35:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018 577 WTPZ21 KNHC 051435 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018 1500 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018 INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 97.3W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 97.3W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 96.8W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.1N 98.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.3N 100.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.9N 103.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.3N 106.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.5N 112.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 97.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Graphics
2018-08-05 10:51:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 05 Aug 2018 08:51:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 05 Aug 2018 09:34:39 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-08-05 10:50:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 832 WTPZ41 KNHC 050850 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 Convection associated with the depression has increased through the early morning, but the system still appears to be sheared from the north. A pair of ASCAT passes between 03Z and 04Z revealed that the center of the depression is elongated and has reformed to the south, closer to the convection. The maximum believable winds in the ASCAT data were around 30 kt, and the initial intensity has been set at that value. Little change has been made to the track or intensity forecast, however confidence is low. The global and regional dynamical models all forecast that a disturbance to the west will develop later today and quickly become the dominant cyclone. This should cause the depression to dissipate as it becomes entangled in the other system's larger circulation. However, there is little agreement among the models as to when or where this will occur. On one hand, the GFS continues to insist that the depression will dissipate later this morning, while the UKMET shows two distinct cyclones through 96 hours. Further complicating matters, the close proximity of the two cyclones is affecting the trackers used to obtain track and intensity information from the dynamical models, and most of the dynamical tracker output can not be considered representative, especially at 48 h and beyond. Assuming the depression persists for at least a couple more days, the ECMWF and HWRF models appear to be the best compromise solutions, with both showing the depression accelerating northwestward between the disturbance to the west and a mid-level ridge to the east, before dissipating in 48-72 h. The NHC track forecast therefore leans most heavily on a blend of these models and the previous forecast track. The intensity forecast is based primarily on the statistical models, since the dynamical tracker output appears to be unrepresentative of the actual forecasts. Although the official forecast conservatively maintains the depression for 72 h, the cyclone could dissipate much sooner than currently indicated. Based on the forecast, any tropical-storm-force winds are expected to remain offshore the coast of Mexico. However, given the low confidence in both the track and intensity of the depression, interests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor its progress in case the track shifts closer to the coast or the cyclone strengthens and grows larger than forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 13.0N 96.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 13.5N 98.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 14.6N 100.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 16.0N 103.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 17.5N 105.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 20.0N 111.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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