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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-08-05 04:38:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 04 2018 203 WTPZ41 KNHC 050238 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 04 2018 After having a somewhat impressive satellite presentation earlier today, the final GOES-16 visible images showed what appeared to be the cyclone's low-level center popping out from the northwestern edge of the convective canopy. Since that time, the remaining convection south and east of the center has become less organized, apparently due to enhanced wind shear associated with a linear band of convection to the northwest of the cyclone. This structural degradation of the system further complicates what was already a low-confidence forecast due to the depression interacting with the developing system located to its west. The 18Z GFS doesn't have much of a representation of the depression, and it is quickly lost in the model integration. The latest HWRF fields show the vortex being absorbed into the circulation of the disturbance to the west after 24 hours, and the HMON shows the system dissipating in 2 to 3 days. On the other hand, the 12Z runs of the ECMWF and UKMET maintain the depression into days 4 and 5, respectively. In an effort to maintain some continuity with the previous forecast while acknowledging the current trends, the new intensity forecast still shows some strengthening but at a slower rate given that the upper-level winds appear to be winning out so far over the warm SSTs. The official forecast carries the tropical cyclone through 72 hours with dissipation shown at day 4, but it would not be surprising if the cyclone dissipated much sooner than indicated here. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat more confident 295/10 given that the center was exposed right around 00Z. The track forecast reasoning has not changed, as the small cyclone should be steered west-northwestward by a large ridge to its north and the aforementioned disturbance to the west, which the model guidance suggests will strengthen quickly during the next couple of days. The new NHC forecast is a bit to the right of the previous one and is close to a blend of the ECMWF and UKMET models. Based on the forecast, any tropical-storm-force winds are expected to remain offshore the coast of Mexico. However, given the low confidence in both the track and intensity of the depression, interests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor its progress in case the track shifts closer to the coast or the cyclone strengthens and grows larger than forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 13.0N 95.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 13.4N 97.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 14.2N 99.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 15.1N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 16.3N 103.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 19.0N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2018-08-05 04:38:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018 202 FOPZ11 KNHC 050238 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018 0300 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 100W 34 X 9( 9) 17(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 15N 100W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven-E (EP1/EP112018)
2018-08-05 04:37:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sat Aug 4 the center of Eleven-E was located near 13.0, -95.9 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Public Advisory Number 2
2018-08-05 04:37:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 04 2018 476 WTPZ31 KNHC 050237 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 04 2018 ...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 95.9W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of the tropical depression. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 95.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next two to three days, with some increase in forward speed forecast by Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move parallel to but remain offshore of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2018-08-05 04:37:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018 478 WTPZ21 KNHC 050237 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018 0300 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018 INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 95.9W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 95.9W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 95.5W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.4N 97.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.2N 99.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.1N 101.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.3N 103.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.0N 109.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 95.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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