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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-08-04 22:34:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 04 2018 973 WTPZ21 KNHC 042033 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018 2100 UTC SAT AUG 04 2018 INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 95.0W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 95.0W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 94.6W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 12.9N 96.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.6N 98.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.3N 100.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.3N 102.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.3N 107.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 20.0N 114.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 95.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Graphics
2018-07-31 22:40:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 31 Jul 2018 20:40:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 31 Jul 2018 20:40:11 GMT
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-07-31 22:39:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 31 2018 142 WTPZ45 KNHC 312039 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 31 2018 The broad low pressure system and area of disturbed weather that the NHC has been tracking for the past several days has finally become well-defined enough and has acquired sufficient organized deep convection near the center to be classified as a tropical depression. The low-level center is estimated to be just inside the southeastern edge of the figure-6 cloud mass based on conventional and microwave satellite fix data. The initial intensity estimate of 30 kt is based on Dvorak satellite classifications of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and T2.5/35 kt from SAB, along with uncontaminated 30-kt winds in a 1634 UTC Scatsat-1 scatterometer pass. The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward or 290/11 kt. A deep-layer ridge to the north of the depression should keep the tropical cyclone moving toward the west-northwest for the next 48 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the west thereafter due to the ridge building slightly southward on days 3-5. The NHC track forecast closely follows a blend of the consensus models TVCN and HCCA since this is the first forecast on this system. Although the comma-shaped cloud pattern is suggestive of a slightly stronger system, microwave imagery and the Scatsat-1 pass indicate that the circulation envelope is elongated northeast-to-southwest, and that westerly winds likely only extend about 30 n mi to the south of the center. Due to the cyclone's irregular shape, the peak winds are being held lower than the Dvorak T2.5 data-T numbers. Visible satellite imagery shows the tops of shallow convection in the eastern semicircle blowing off toward the west, which is indicative of modest mid-level shear undercutting the favorable high-level cirrus outflow layer. This mid-level flow is also likely producing some intrusions of dry air, a negative condition that should act to inhibit inner-core convective development in the short term. These aforementioned unfavorable environmental conditions, in conjunction with the irregular shape of the cyclone's circulation, should result in only slow strengthening for the next 48 hours or so, despite the very favorable deep-layer, low vertical wind shear environment. In the 48-72 h period, both the GFS and ECMWF models are forecasting the shear to increase to near 15 kt, which should act to maintain only slow development. By days 4 and 5, the shear is forecast to abate, and the cyclone is forecast to become a hurricane by 120 hours. The intensity forecast follows the trend of the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models, but is slightly higher due to the HMON model showing immediate weakening, which is pulling down the consensus intensity forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 12.7N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 13.1N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 13.6N 120.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 13.8N 122.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 14.0N 124.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 13.8N 128.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 13.7N 132.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 13.6N 136.7W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-07-31 22:39:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 31 2018 778 FOPZ15 KNHC 312039 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 2100 UTC TUE JUL 31 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 10(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) 13(47) X(47) 1(48) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 14(37) 3(40) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 10N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 12(27) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression Ten-E (EP5/EP102018)
2018-07-31 22:38:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... ...NO THREAT TO ANY LAND AREAS... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 31 the center of Ten-E was located near 12.7, -116.7 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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