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Tropical Depression Gilma Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-07-29 04:35:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018 882 WTPZ43 KNHC 290235 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018 Gilma's structure has not changed much over the past six hours. Deep convection remains limited to small, but frequent, bursts just east of the depression's exposed low-level center. The initial intensity has been held at 30 kt, based primarily on continuity, but this is also supported by the most recent Dvorak classification from TAFB. No change has been made to the official intensity forecast. The wind shear, as measured in SHIPS diagnostic data from the GFS and ECMWF, is already over 30 kt and is forecast to continue increasing over the next day or two. In addition, the tropical cyclone will be moving through a progressively drier environment during the next couple of days, which should also contribute to the suppression of deep convection. Gilma is therefore still forecast to become a remnant low tomorrow, and then dissipate entirely by early next week. The depression is moving a little quicker than previously anticipated, and the initial motion estimate is 285/12. Aside from the faster initial speed, there is no change to the reasoning behind the track forecast. Gilma is still expected to turn back toward the west and slow its forward speed for the next couple of days while being steered primarily by the low-level flow associated with the subtropical ridge to the north. The NHC track forecast is very close to the various consensus models, and minimal changes were made from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 16.1N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 16.3N 137.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 16.4N 139.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/1200Z 16.3N 141.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/0000Z 16.1N 143.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Depression Gilma (EP3/EP082018)
2018-07-29 04:34:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DISORGANIZED GILMA STILL A DEPRESSION BUT LIKELY TO DISSIPATE SOON... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Jul 28 the center of Gilma was located near 16.1, -135.7 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Gilma Public Advisory Number 10
2018-07-29 04:34:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018 079 WTPZ33 KNHC 290234 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Gilma Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018 ...DISORGANIZED GILMA STILL A DEPRESSION BUT LIKELY TO DISSIPATE SOON... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 135.7W ABOUT 1300 MI...2090 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gilma was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 135.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west with a decrease in forward speed is expected tonight, and this general motion should continue into early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The tropical depression is forecast to become a remnant low on Sunday and dissipate entirely within in a few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Gilma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2018-07-29 04:34:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 29 2018 135 FOPZ13 KNHC 290234 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082018 0300 UTC SUN JUL 29 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Gilma Forecast Advisory Number 10
2018-07-29 04:34:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 29 2018 163 WTPZ23 KNHC 290234 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082018 0300 UTC SUN JUL 29 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 135.7W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 135.7W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 135.2W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 16.3N 137.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.4N 139.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.3N 141.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 16.1N 143.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 135.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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