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Summary for Tropical Depression Gilma (EP3/EP082018)
2018-07-29 16:40:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...GILMA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Jul 29 the center of Gilma was located near 15.9, -138.5 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Gilma Public Advisory Number 12
2018-07-29 16:40:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 29 2018 731 WTPZ33 KNHC 291440 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Gilma Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 29 2018 ...GILMA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 138.5W ABOUT 1120 MI...1805 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gilma was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 138.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The tropical depression is in an area of unfavorable upper-level winds, and Gilma is forecast to become a remnant low later today and dissipate entirely within a few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Gilma Forecast Advisory Number 12
2018-07-29 16:40:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 29 2018 732 WTPZ23 KNHC 291440 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082018 1500 UTC SUN JUL 29 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 138.5W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 138.5W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 137.9W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.0N 140.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 15.9N 142.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 15.7N 144.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 15.5N 147.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 138.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Gilma Graphics
2018-07-29 10:39:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jul 2018 08:39:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jul 2018 09:25:36 GMT
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Tropical Depression Gilma Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-07-29 10:37:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 29 2018 728 WTPZ43 KNHC 290837 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 29 2018 Gilma continues to generate convection to the east of the exposed low-level center despite the ongoing 30 kt or more of westerly vertical wind shear. Satellite intensity estimates are in the 30-40 kt range, and the initial intensity will be held at 30 kt based on these data and the unchanged organization since the last advisory. The initial motion is now 280/13. Gilma is expected to move westward and eventually south of westward during the next 2-3 days in the low-level flow associated with the subtropical ridge to the north. There has been a slight southward shift of the guidance since the last advisory, and the forecast track is thus nudged a little southward. The new track continues to lie close to the various consensus models. An upper-level trough located over the cyclone has been providing support for the central convection to persist despite the shear. The large-scale models forecast that Gilma will move west of the trough axis during the next 12-24 h, which will expose the tropical cyclone to 40-50 kt northwesterly upper-level winds and an environment of upper-level convergence. These developments should bring an end to the central convection and cause Gilma to decay to a remnant low. The remnants of the cyclone should weaken to a trough between 48-72 h as indicated by the large-scale models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 16.1N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 16.2N 138.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 16.1N 140.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/1800Z 16.0N 143.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/0600Z 15.8N 145.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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