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Tropical Depression Gilma Forecast Advisory Number 8
2018-07-28 16:32:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 28 2018 363 WTPZ23 KNHC 281432 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082018 1500 UTC SAT JUL 28 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 133.0W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 133.0W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 132.7W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.4N 134.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.7N 136.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 15.8N 137.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 15.7N 140.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 15.4N 144.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 133.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Gilma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2018-07-28 16:32:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 28 2018 361 FOPZ13 KNHC 281432 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082018 1500 UTC SAT JUL 28 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 6 8(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Gilma Graphics
2018-07-28 10:36:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Jul 2018 08:36:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Jul 2018 09:27:17 GMT
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Tropical Depression Gilma Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-07-28 10:35:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018 640 WTPZ43 KNHC 280835 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018 Gilma continues to be affected by strong westerly vertical shear, with the low level center remaining exposed to the northwest of an area of weakly banded convection. Satellite intensity estimates are in the 25-35 kt range, so the initial intensity remains a possibly generous 30 kt. The initial motion is 280/11. The low- to mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should continue steering the cyclone generally westward to west-northwestward for the next three days with some decrease in forward speed. The new track forecast is similar to the previous forecast and lies a little to the north of the center of the guidance envelope and the various consensus models. The ongoing shear is due to an upper-level trough just to the west and northwest of the tropical cyclone. The dynamical models suggest that this trough will move westward in close proximity to Gilma, which will allow the shear to continue. In addition, the cyclone should be moving into a drier airmass during the next several days. These factors should cause Gilma to weaken and eventually dissipate during the forecast period even though it will stay over warm water. The new intensity forecast is mostly an update of the previous forecast, and it now calls for Gilma to decay to a remnant low by 36 h and dissipate completely after 72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 15.1N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 15.4N 133.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 16.0N 135.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 16.3N 137.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0600Z 16.4N 139.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0600Z 16.5N 143.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Gilma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2018-07-28 10:34:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 28 2018 024 FOPZ13 KNHC 280834 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082018 0900 UTC SAT JUL 28 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 1 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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