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Tropical Depression Gilma Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-07-27 22:32:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 797 WTPZ43 KNHC 272032 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 Gilma is feeling the effects of northwesterly shear. During the past several hours, the center of the system has been exposed at times with much of the convective activity being displaced to the southeast of the center. The initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt based on a very recent ASCAT pass and the latest Dvorak estimates. This makes Gilma a tropical depression. Although Gilma is expected to be over relatively warm SSTs during the next couple of days, the northwesterly shear is forecast to become even more hostile. Therefore, continued weakening is anticipated, and Gilma is now forecast to become a remnant low by 48 hours when the shear is expected to be in excess of 30 kt. The remnant low is predicted to open into a trough by day 4 as shown by many of the global models. The depression is moving westward at 15 kt steered by the flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. A west to west-northwest motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next few days as the weak and increasingly shallow system is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is slightly south of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 14.7N 129.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 14.8N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 15.3N 133.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 15.8N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 16.5N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1800Z 17.0N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Avila
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Summary for Tropical Depression Gilma (EP3/EP082018)
2018-07-27 22:31:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...GILMA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Jul 27 the center of Gilma was located near 14.7, -129.9 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Gilma Public Advisory Number 5
2018-07-27 22:31:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 444 WTPZ33 KNHC 272031 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Gilma Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 ...GILMA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 129.9W ABOUT 1425 MI...2290 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1730 MI...2780 KM E OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gilma was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 129.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A slower west to west-northwest motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Gilma is expected to become a remnant low in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila/Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Gilma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2018-07-27 22:31:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 27 2018 381 FOPZ13 KNHC 272031 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082018 2100 UTC FRI JUL 27 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 135W 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression Gilma Forecast Advisory Number 5
2018-07-27 22:30:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 27 2018 021 WTPZ23 KNHC 272030 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082018 2100 UTC FRI JUL 27 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 129.9W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 129.9W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 129.4W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 14.8N 131.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 15.3N 133.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 15.8N 135.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.5N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.0N 140.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 129.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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