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Summary for Tropical Depression Nine-E (EP4/EP092018)
2018-07-27 04:32:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL PACIFIC ON FRIDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 the center of Nine-E was located near 10.8, -136.8 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Public Advisory Number 2
2018-07-27 04:32:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018 962 WTPZ34 KNHC 270232 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092018 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018 ...DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL PACIFIC ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.8N 136.8W ABOUT 1365 MI...2195 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 10.8 North, longitude 136.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A general westward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected for the next several days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move into the central Pacific basin on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2018-07-27 04:32:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 27 2018 961 WTPZ24 KNHC 270232 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092018 0300 UTC FRI JUL 27 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 136.8W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 136.8W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 136.3W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 10.7N 138.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 10.6N 140.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 10.6N 142.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 10.7N 145.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 11.6N 149.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 12.5N 155.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.8N 136.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Eight-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2018-07-27 04:31:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 27 2018 272 FOPZ13 KNHC 270231 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082018 0300 UTC FRI JUL 27 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 1 36(37) 21(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) 15N 130W 50 X 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 12(24) X(24) X(24) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-07-27 04:31:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018 015 WTPZ43 KNHC 270231 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018 The cloud pattern of the depression features a small area of central convection with cloud tops of -70 to -80C and a larger convective band to the west and northwest of the low-level center. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on the previous ASCAT data and the latest Dvorak classification from SAB. The cyclone has an opportunity to strengthen during the next 36 hours or so while it moves through an environment of light-to-moderate westerly shear and SSTs of 27-28C. After that time the shear is forecast to increase and reach 30-40 kt by late in the forecast period. The combination of the shear and cooling SSTs should result in weakening. The global models show the low and mid-level circulations decoupling by 96 hours, which should result in the cyclone becoming a remnant low. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest IVCN intensity consensus. The initial motion estimate is 285/14 based on the latest geostationary and microwave satellite fixes. The track forecast remains unchanged, as the cyclone will be steered westward to west-northwestward along the southwestern flank of a large mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. After the cyclone becomes a shallow remnant low late in the period, a westward motion is expected. The latest NHC track forecast is close to the previous one and is a bit south of the multi-model consensus aids and near a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 13.8N 125.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 14.1N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 14.5N 129.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 15.0N 131.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 15.7N 133.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 17.0N 137.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 17.5N 141.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0000Z 17.5N 145.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
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