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Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-07-26 22:45:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018 805 WTPZ43 KNHC 262045 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018 A recent ASCAT pass indicated that a very small 30-kt circulation has developed in association with the disturbance that the NHC has been tracking southwest of Baja California Sur during the past several days. On this basis, advisories are initiated on Tropical Depression Eight. However, the satellite presentation is not very well organized at this time, and Dvorak T-numbers are still low. Given the current environment of low shear and warm ocean, gradual strengthening is anticipated. However, global models indicate that the shear will markedly increase beyond 48 hours, and this wind pattern should result in weakening. The NHC forecast is a blend of HCCA and the simple intensity consensus. The depression is moving toward the west or west-northwest at 14 kt around the periphery of the strong subtropical ridge. Since the ridge is forecast to persist, no significant change in the steering flow is anticipated. The cyclone should then continue on the same track for the next several days, although by the end of the forecast period, the cyclone is forecast to become a westward moving remnant low. The NHC forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 13.2N 123.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 13.7N 125.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 14.0N 128.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 14.5N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 15.0N 132.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 16.5N 135.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 17.0N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/1800Z 17.0N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression Eight-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-07-26 22:45:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 26 2018 255 FOPZ13 KNHC 262045 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082018 2100 UTC THU JUL 26 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 X 4( 4) 48(52) 3(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 16(20) 1(21) X(21) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eight-E (EP3/EP082018)
2018-07-26 22:45:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC... ...NO THREAT TO LAND... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 the center of Eight-E was located near 13.2, -123.4 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eight-E Public Advisory Number 1
2018-07-26 22:45:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018 184 WTPZ33 KNHC 262045 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC... ...NO THREAT TO LAND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 123.4W ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 123.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a general west to west-northwest track is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-07-26 22:44:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 26 2018 899 WTPZ23 KNHC 262044 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082018 2100 UTC THU JUL 26 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 123.4W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 123.4W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 122.7W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.7N 125.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.0N 128.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 14.5N 130.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 15.0N 132.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.5N 135.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 17.0N 139.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 17.0N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 123.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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