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Summary for Tropical Depression Nate (AT1/AL162017)
2017-10-08 16:49:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND AS NATE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 the center of Nate was located near 33.1, -87.3 with movement NNE at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Nate Public Advisory Number 17
2017-10-08 16:49:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 081449 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nate Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017 ...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND AS NATE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.1N 87.3W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All coastal warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nate was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 87.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Nate's center will continue to move inland across the Deep South, Tennessee Valley, and central Appalachian Mountains through Monday. Surface observations indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is predicted during the next couple of days, but Nate is forecast to become post-tropical on Monday or Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are expected over the the Florida Panhandle, and portions of Alabama and Georgia through this afternoon. STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along portions of the northern Gulf coast, but should gradually subside this afternoon. RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Monday: East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians: 3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches. Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches. TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes will be possible today, mainly from the Florida Panhandle and eastern Alabama across western and northern Georgia into the western Carolinas. SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the Gulf of Mexico through this evening. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 4 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Nate Forecast Advisory Number 17
2017-10-08 16:48:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 08 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 081448 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017 1500 UTC SUN OCT 08 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL COASTAL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 87.3W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 87.3W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 88.0W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 36.2N 85.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 40.1N 79.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 43.1N 72.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 45.0N 65.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 87.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1, WMO HEADER WTNT31 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Sixteen Graphics
2017-10-05 10:56:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Oct 2017 08:56:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Oct 2017 08:56:14 GMT
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Tropical Depression Sixteen Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-10-05 10:51:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 050851 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 500 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 Deep convection associated with the depression has increased over the eastern portion of the circulation overnight, however there has only been a slight increase in overall banding. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates suggest that the depression is near tropical-storm strength, but with the center located near the western edge of the deep convection the cyclone is kept as a 30-kt tropical depression for this advisory. The intensity forecast remains quite uncertain due to expected land interaction today, and possibly again in about 48 hours when the system passes near the Yucatan peninsula. The depression could still become a tropical storm before the center moves over northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras later today. After the cyclone moves north of Honduras, it will traverse the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea, where the upper-level environment is also forecast to be conducive for strengthening. However, the amount of strengthening is likely to depend on the structure of the inner core after it crosses land. The intensity models have continued their downward trend, but the NHC forecast remains near the higher side of the guidance due to these favorable conditions and persistence from the previous advisory. Some additional strengthening is possible while the system moves over the southern and central Gulf of Mexico, and the NHC intensity forecast brings the system to hurricane strength within 72 hours. This is in best agreement with the SHIPS intensity model. The depression is moving northwestward or 315/6 kt. The cyclone is forecast to move northwestward to north-northwestward during the next day or two around the western side of a ridge the extends from near the southeastern Bahamas southwestward into the central Caribbean Sea. By the weekend, a large mid- to upper-level ridge is forecast to build off the coast of the southeastern United States, and this should steer the cyclone north-northwestward at a faster forward speed. After 72 hours, the system is expected to recurve around the northwestward side of the ridge. The track guidance is in better agreement this cycle with the latest runs of the ECMWF and UKMET models shifting westward, closer to the previous GFS and HWRF iterations. This has required a fairly substantial westward shift in the NHC forecast track at 72 h and beyond. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen and bring tropical storm conditions to portions of Nicaragua and Honduras through early Friday. Heavy rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, and Panama through Friday night. 2. The system could be near hurricane intensity when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday, bringing direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall, and a hurricane watch is in effect for a portion of this area. 3. The system is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and could affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane this weekend, with direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. However, it is too early to specify the timing, location, or magnitude of these impacts. Residents along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana through the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system and heed any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 13.3N 83.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 14.3N 83.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 06/0600Z 16.3N 84.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 19.0N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 21.8N 87.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 27.8N 89.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 34.0N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/0600Z 39.5N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown
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