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Tropical Depression Seventeen Public Advisory Number 1

2017-10-09 10:32:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Oct 09 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 090832 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seventeen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 500 AM AST Mon Oct 09 2017 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...NO THREAT TO LAND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.1N 39.9W ABOUT 875 MI...1405 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seventeen was located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 39.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn to the east and east-southeast is expected to occur tonight and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Depression Seventeen Forecast Advisory Number 1

2017-10-09 10:31:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 09 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 090831 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 0900 UTC MON OCT 09 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 39.9W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 39.9W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 40.0W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 31.5N 39.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.7N 39.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 31.5N 38.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.0N 37.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 29.7N 37.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 29.7N 35.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 31.0N 32.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 39.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Depression Nate Public Advisory Number 19

2017-10-09 05:00:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 08 2017

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Tropical Depression Nate Public Advisory Number 18

2017-10-08 22:47:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 500 PM EDT SUN OCT 08 2017

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Tropical Depression Nate Forecast Discussion Number 17

2017-10-08 16:50:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 081450 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Nate Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017 The center of Nate continues to move quickly north-northeastward over central Alabama. Moderate westerly shear has caused most of the deep convection and heavy rainfall to be displaced to the east and northeast of the center, and surface observations show that Nate has continued to rapidly weaken. Wind gusts to tropical-storm strength are still occurring over portions of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, but there are no recent reports of sustained tropical-storm-force winds. Therefore, Nate is now a 30-kt tropical depression. Nate is expected to become a remnant low on Monday, and extratropical by Tuesday before it is absorbed by frontal system. The intensity foreast keeps the wind speed around 30 kt during the next 48 hours, since winds are expected to increase along the mid-Atlantic coast and southern New England coast on Monday when the post-tropical low approaches that area. Nate should continue to move quickly north-northeastward to northeastward within the mid-latitude westerlies during the next 24 to 36 hours. The cyclone is forecast to turn east-northeastward by Tuesday before it merges with the frontal system. This is the last NHC advisory on Nate. Heavy rainfall associated with Nate is expected to spread over the Tennessee Valley, the southern and central Appalachians, and the Ohio Valley during the next day or so. Future information on Nate system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 5 PM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. These advisories will continue as long as Nate poses a flooding threat to the U.S. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the potential for flash flooding in these areas. 2. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also bring 2 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 7 inches across the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians Sunday and Monday, which will increase the risk for flash flooding across these locations. 3. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are expected over portions of the Florida Panhandle, Alabama, and Georgia through this afternoon. 4. Persistent onshore flow will keep water levels elevated along portions of the northern Gulf coast through today. See products issues by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 33.1N 87.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 09/0000Z 36.2N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/1200Z 40.1N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 10/0000Z 43.1N 72.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/1200Z 45.0N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ Forecaster Brown

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