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Tropical Depression Lee Graphics
2017-09-18 04:52:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Sep 2017 02:52:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Sep 2017 02:52:36 GMT
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Tropical Depression Lee Forecast Discussion Number 13
2017-09-18 04:47:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 180246 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Lee Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 Deep convection associated with Lee has waned over the past several hours as dry air and shear take a toll on the tropical cyclone. A recent partial ASCAT pass showed 25 kt winds over the northwest portion of the circulation, assuming that there are stronger winds to the northeast of the center, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt, but this could be generous. The vertical shear is forecast to increase to greater than 30 kt during the next 24 hours and it is doubtful that Lee will be able to generate enough organized deep convection to keep its status as a tropical cyclone for much longer. As a result of the shear and nearby dry air, weakening and degeneration into a remnant low is predicted by Monday night, if not sooner. The global models show the circulation dissipating in 2 to 3 days, and so does the NHC forecast. Lee has turned west-northwestward or 285/9 kt. A west-northwestward or northwestward motion should continue until the cyclone dissipates, and little change to the previous NHC track forecast was required. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 13.6N 38.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 14.1N 39.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 15.2N 41.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/1200Z 16.3N 42.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0000Z 17.7N 44.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2017-09-18 04:47:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 180246 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0300 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Depression Lee Forecast Advisory Number 13
2017-09-18 04:47:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 180245 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0300 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 38.5W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 38.5W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 37.9W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.1N 39.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.2N 41.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.3N 42.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.7N 44.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 38.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Lee (AT4/AL142017)
2017-09-18 04:46:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LEE FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 17 the center of Lee was located near 13.6, -38.5 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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