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Tropical Depression Lee Public Advisory Number 13
2017-09-18 04:46:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 180246 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Lee Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 ...LEE FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 38.5W ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lee was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 38.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Lee is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by late Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Lee Graphics
2017-09-17 22:55:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Sep 2017 20:55:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Sep 2017 21:30:10 GMT
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Tropical Depression Lee Forecast Discussion Number 12
2017-09-17 22:49:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 172049 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Lee Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 A small burst of deep convection re-formed near Lee's center, but since the earlier ASCAT pass barely showed 30 kt, that will remain the initial intensity. Increasing shear and a dry mid-level environment will continue to take a toll on Lee during the next few days. Gradual weakening is still expected, and Lee could lose organized deep convection by 36 hours, if not sooner. The GFS and ECMWF models degenerate the system into a surface trough by day 3, and dissipation is now indicated in the NHC forecast at that time. Lee is moving westward, or 280/7 kt, but it should turn west-northwestward soon due to the weakness of the subtropical ridge to its north. A west-northwestward or northwestward motion should continue until Lee dissipates on day 3. Little change was required to the updated NHC track forecast, which lies close to the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 13.2N 37.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 13.5N 38.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 14.3N 40.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 15.4N 41.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1800Z 16.6N 43.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2017-09-17 22:49:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 172049 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 2100 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Depression Lee (AT4/AL142017)
2017-09-17 22:49:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LEE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 17 the center of Lee was located near 13.2, -37.3 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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