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Tropical Depression Fifteen Public Advisory Number 1A
2017-09-16 19:30:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 161730 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 200 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 ...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 51.6W ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Lucia * Martinique * Guadeloupe * Dominica * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will likely be issued later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ Satellite images indicate that the disturbance has become better organized and is now classified as a tropical depression. At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen was centered near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 51.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 20 mph (30 km/h). A slower west-northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the Leeward Islands on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Leeward Islands. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within portions of Leeward Islands by Monday night or Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Monday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the central and southern Leeward Islands through Tuesday night. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to begin affecting the Lesser Antilles by Sunday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Graphics
2017-09-16 16:51:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2017 14:51:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2017 15:45:30 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 20
2017-09-16 16:39:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 161439 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 Deep convection associated with the depression has increased this morning, with the low-level center estimated to be near the middle of the thunderstorm activity. Based on the improved organization of the cloud pattern since the time of the ASCAT pass overnight, the initial wind speed is nudged upward to 30 kt. The depression is over relatively warm SSTs and embedded in fairly low wind shear conditions, but it also is situated in a dry atmospheric environment. These mixed factors should cause the system to remain relatively steady state for the next few days, though it is possible that the cyclone becomes a tropical storm during that time frame. Beyond a few days, the wind shear is expected to increase and SSTs lower along the expected path. These more hostile conditions should cause the depression to weaken and become a remnant low in 4 to 5 days. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one, and in line with the bulk of the guidance. The tropical cyclone continues to drift westward in weak steering currents. The models are in agreement that the depression should turn slowly northward during the next day or two when it moves along the west side of a weak mid-level ridge. Once the system loses convection, a turn back toward the west is predicted. Only minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 15.8N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 15.9N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 16.3N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 16.9N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 17.6N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 18.2N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 17.8N 129.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 16.7N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2017-09-16 16:39:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 161439 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E (EP5/EP152017)
2017-09-16 16:38:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER OPEN WATERS FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 the center of Fifteen-E was located near 15.8, -126.5 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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