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Tropical Depression Lee Public Advisory Number 12
2017-09-17 22:49:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 172048 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Lee Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 ...LEE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 37.3W ABOUT 910 MI...1465 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lee was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 37.3 West. Lee is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), but a turn toward the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected by tonight. That motion should continue through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Lee could degenerate into a remnant low by Monday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Lee Forecast Advisory Number 12
2017-09-17 22:49:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 172048 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 2100 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 37.3W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 15SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 37.3W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 36.9W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.5N 38.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.3N 40.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.4N 41.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.6N 43.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 37.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Lee Graphics
2017-09-17 16:53:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Sep 2017 14:53:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Sep 2017 15:28:51 GMT
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Tropical Depression Lee Forecast Discussion Number 11
2017-09-17 16:49:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 171448 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Lee Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 An 1144 UTC ASCAT pass indicated that Lee is no longer producing tropical-storm-force winds. In addition, deep convection is fizzling, and there are only a few convective elements remaining in a band to the south of the center. Lee is downgraded to a tropical depression with 30-kt winds, and even that could be generous given what the ASCAT data is showing. Since the cyclone is already struggling in its current environment, it probably won't do much better going forward since vertical shear is expected to increase to 30 kt in about 24 hours. Therefore, gradual weakening is expected, and Lee could degenerate into a remnant low by 48 hours, if not sooner. The GFS and ECMWF both dissipate the low in 3 to 4 days, so the new NHC forecast now shows that occurring by day 4. Lee is moving westward, or 280/7 kt. Even though the ridge to the north of the cyclone is not very strong, Lee's weak nature should cause it to be steered generally westward or west-northwestward for the next 3 days before it dissipates. The NHC track forecast remains just south of the various consensus aids, and it is not too different from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 13.0N 36.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 13.2N 37.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 13.8N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 14.7N 41.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 15.7N 42.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1200Z 17.5N 45.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2017-09-17 16:47:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 171447 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 1500 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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